The West’s top two seeds will meet in the conference finals after all. The top-seeded Warriors overcame a rough start to grind the Memphis Grizzlies out of the playoffs in six games. Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets came back from a huge 3-1 hole to crush the Los Angeles Clippers’ hearts in seven.
This series will pit MVP winner Stephen Curry with his closest rival for the award, James Harden. Will their eagerly anticipated matchup be the decisive one in this series? Or will other key factors ultimately prove to be more crucial? Let’s examine four of the key factors that will likely make or break this series between the West’s best.
It’s make or break time in the playoffs. Check out our comprehensive preview of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks here. Also, click here to see what the experts are predicting in this Rockets vs. Warriors series.
[sc:NBAArticles ]Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors Series Preview
Who Da Real MVP?
Without a doubt, the matchup between regular season MVP winner Stephen Curry and runner-up James Harden will be one of, if not the most played-up story line in these conference finals. In what was a closely contested race for most of the year, Curry eventually pulled ahead and grabbed 100 of the 130 first-place votes, while Harden came in a distant second with 25.
[sc:NBA240banner ]Curry has been playing every bit like the MVP with averages of 28.2 points, 5.1 rebounds and 6.8 assists in these playoffs. He rained down 18 threes in his last three games to finally tame the Grizzlies in the previous round.
Not to be outdone, Harden is averaging 26.3 points, 4.6 rebounds and 8.0 assists while shooting 95 percent from the free throw line (on about 10 attempts per game). His MVP-caliber 31-7-8 line and playoff-high 18 free throw attempts led the Rockets to a Game 7 win against the Clippers.
The two superstars likely won’t see much of each other one-on-one, but their play will no doubt be crucial to their respective teams’ success.
Klay Unleashed
Klay Thompson must be so glad to finally see the back of Tony Allen and the Memphis Grizzlies. After averaging a scorching 25 points per game against the Pelicans in the first round, Thompson was limited to just 18 points per game by the Grindfather. Not surprisingly, Thompson had two of his best games of the series with Allen sidelined by a hamstring injury.
Thompson now has a chance to put up more of the same big-time scoring numbers in their matchup with the Rockets. Klay led the Warriors in scoring in each of their last three regular season meetings with Houston, averaging 25 points in those games.
This series will be billed as the Curry vs. Harden matchup, but Thompson has a lot riding on this as well. He is arguably Harden’s main competition for the title of best shooting guard in the league. One aspect of the game where Thompson does hold the edge over Harden is on defense, an advantage he could bring to light by slowing Harden down on that end of the floor.
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How Will Rockets Match up on Defense?
The Rockets’ defense has fallen off a fair bit in these playoffs. They’re allowing 106.8 points per 100 possessions, up from 100.5 during the regular season. Facing the Mavericks and Clippers, two of the best offensive teams in the league, in the first two rounds was obviously a major factor.
But the absence of Patrick Beverley, one of their best one-on-one defenders, has also played a big part in that defensive decline. Beverley will have his cast removed from his surgically repaired left wrist, but his return in time for the Warriors series is still doubtful.
With Beverley out, the Rockets will be relying on Jason Terry and Harden to do a job defensively on the Splash Brothers, which is not ideal. As the numbers illustrate, the Rockets’ defense has been at its worst when Terry and Harden have been on the court in the playoffs, and at its best when they’re on the bench.
But while it worked in the fourth quarter of Game 6 against the Clippers, Houston head coach Kevin McHale probably isn’t going to go bench Harden that long again. So McHale will need to make some defensive adjustments to compensate. Trevor Ariza could take either Curry or Thompson (probably Curry), while Harden hides on the less threatening Barnes to save up his energy for the offensive end.
Either way, the Rockets (on paper, at least) will likely be at a disadvantage defensively in at least one perimeter position; the question will be how effectively they can minimize the damage.
Dwight the Difference Maker
Golden State basically blew the Rockets away during the regular season. In four meetings, the Warriors held them to a miserable 40 percent shooting from the field and 30 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Unsurprisingly, the Warriors swept the season series thanks to that incredible defense, and won those games by an average of 15 points.
However, the Rockets played half of those games without Dwight Howard and the other half he played shortly before missing the next two months with a knee injury. This postseason, though, Howard’s production on both ends of the floor has been reminiscent of his Orlando Magic days. Howard is averaging 17.3 points, 13.7 rebounds and 2.7 blocks in the playoffs.
Dwight’s resurgence gives the Rockets that much-needed game-changing interior force against Golden State. He will be a handful in the paint, and should discourage the Warriors from simply staying home on their shooters on the perimeter.
The Rockets will need the supporting cast of Josh Smith/Terrence Jones, Corey Brewer and Trevor Ariza to step up like they did in the end of the Clippers series, but they also need their stars to show up. Howard presents one of the few clear cut advantages Houston has in this series, and he has to make it count for the Rockets to go toe-to-toe with the Warriors.
Writer’s Prediction
There’s every indication that the Splash Brothers are bound for a monster series. And with their terrific defense, it’s hard not to see the Warriors advancing to the Finals. The Warriors win in six.
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