Key Subtractions: QB Brock Osweiler, RB Jonathan Grimes, DE/DT Antonio Smith, NT Vince Wilfork, DE/OLB John Simon, CB A.J. Bouye, S Quintin Demps
Strengths
Defense was the big reason the Texans went 9-7 and won the AFC South despite some very shaky quarterback play last season, and it’ll be the big reason if they somehow make it to the playoffs again this year. They’re currently priced at +220 to repeat as division champs.
The Houston D was so good it managed to survive the absence of JJ Watt, who missed all but three regular season games due to back surgery. Watt should be back this season, though, and is set to anchor a terrific front seven along with Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus.
However, it remains to be seen whether Watt can still be able to reach the heights he hit a few years ago when he was a potential MVP candidate. With all the question marks on other parts of the team, the Texans need their superstar to play like the Watt of old, and for the rest of their excellent front to do the same.
Weaknesses
The Texans’ offense was pretty bad last season – they were 30th in total offense per DVOA – and that will continue to be the case this year. Their big hope that of upgrading at quarterback by getting Tony Romo after moving Brock Osweiler’s big deal went up in smoke when Romo retired, so they are stuck with Tom Savage and rookie Deshaun Watson as their quarterback options.
While DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller are good players, the Texans don’t necessarily have a ton of depth in quality at the skill positions. Their O-line is also one of the worst in the entire league, so the Texans QBs will definitely have their work cut out for them.
And as if their offensive problems weren’t bad enough, their secondary also suffered from the departures of A.J. Bouye – one of the top corners in the league last season – and safety Quintin Demps. They’ll have Kevin Johnson back after he missed 10 games with a foot injury, but their overall corner depth will be an issue, especially if Kareem Jackson and Johnathan Joseph are merely mediocre.
Key Player – Deshaun Watson
While Savage is currently slated as the Texans’ starting QB to begin the season, he’s most likely just keeping the seat warm for the rookie Watson until he’s ready to take over the job sometime during the season. Watson was a superstar in college, as he showed when he led Clemson to a dramatic comeback win over mighty Alabama in the national championship game.
However, there are some question marks about him as a pro prospect, ones that he must answer fairly quickly. He’s the Texans’ best option at QB, and his ability to adapt to the NFL game as a rookie could determine whether Houston makes a return to the playoffs this season.
Key Game – at Seattle (Oct. 29)
Chances are the Texans make the switch at quarterback before their Week 7 bye to give Watson more time. He really should be starting by Week 6, where he can have a nice tune-up with the Cleveland Browns coming to town. But after the bye comes a huge test in the form of the Seattle Seahawks on the road. That’ll be quite a challenge for a rookie quarterback’s first NFL road start, but it’ll be one that could show just what Watson’s got.
2016 Team Stats
Category
Stat (Rank)
Points per game
17.4 (#28)
Passing yards per game
198.5 (#29)
Rushing yards per game
116.2 (#8)
Scoring defense
20.5 (#11)
Writer’s Prediction
The Texans get adequate play from Watson and the defense to go OVER 8.5 wins, but they fall short of the division crown as they go second in the AFC South.
