After a slow start to the season, the Indianapolis Colts have now won three in a row to claw their way back to the top of the AFC South. The Colts share that lead with the Houston Texans, whom they meet on Thursday night with sole possession of the division very much on the line.
The NFC East is also getting very interesting, as the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles are set to battle it out on Sunday Night Football. Check out our preview of that big rivalry game here, and read on for this potential AFC South decider.
[sc:Football ]Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Preview
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
When: Thursday, October 9, 8:25 PM ET
Line: Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Houston Texans (+3); total: 46.0 – view all NFL lines
Betting on the Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts have recovered well from a tough 0-2 start – with losses at Denver and vs. Philadelphia – to win their last three games in a row. After two big blowouts over AFC also-rans Jacksonville and Tennessee, the Colts took down a legit playoff-caliber team in the Baltimore Ravens at home, 20-13, last Sunday. With that win, the Colts improved to 4-1 against the spread this season.
[sc:NFL240banner ]It was far from a perfect performance from Indy, who won despite an off-night from quarterback Andrew Luck. Luck was responsible for two of the team’s four turnovers, but still found time to throw for 312 yards and a league-leading 14th touchdown.
Luck was bailed out by the two aspects of the team that had major question marks heading into this season: the running game and the defense. The Colts were able to rush for 117 yards against a very tough Baltimore front seven, while the defense had its best game of the season, limiting the Ravens to a season-low 13 points on 287 total yards.
Indy’s currently ranked 11th in the NFL against the run, although it hasn’t exactly gone against terrific running attacks, with Denver, Philadelphia and Jacksonville all ranked in the bottom five in rushing. They’ll need to play up to their ranking against Houston’s very tough running back Arian Foster.
Luck and the offense can help out their defense by getting out in front early to force the Texans to abandon the run. The Colts have definitely been capable of getting off to sizable leads this season. In their last four games, they’ve outscored their opponents 73-19 in the first half.
The Colts are 20-4 in their last 24 games vs. the Texans, and 8-4 in the 12 on the road at Houston.
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Betting on the Houston Texans
Newsflash: the Houston Texans are pretty good when Arian Foster is healthy and playing well. The veteran back, who missed the Texans’ loss to the Giants and was limited against the Bills because of a hamstring issue, returned with a vengeance against the Cowboys, rushing for 157 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday in a narrow 20-17 road loss in overtime.
More Foster means less quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, which is always a good thing as far as the Texans are concerned. When Fitzpatrick was forced to throw 34 and 37 times in the last two weeks without Foster, it resulted in two touchdowns against five interceptions. Not pretty.
However, there should be some concern with regards to Foster’s workload. Even after missing essentially two games, he’s still fifth in the NFL in carries. And with a short week for the Texans, an already banged up Foster may not be firing on all cylinders in time for Thursday night. Still, he represents their best chance of winning against the Colts.
To keep Foster a factor and Fitzpatrick a non-factor against Indy, the Texans defense will need to keep the game close and prevent Luck and the Colts from scoring. Houston’s D has been successful in doing that so far, limiting its opponents to just under 17 points per game. And despite surrendering a season-high 324 yards to Tony Romo, the Dallas QB praised the Texans as the best defense he’d seen all year.
Houston’s defense has also been excellent in forcing turnovers. With their one interception on Romo and two fumble recoveries, the Texans now have 12 takeaways (five INTs, seven from fumbles) this season, the most in the NFL. Luck has thrown six picks so far this season, while the Colts fumbled three times against the Ravens, so the opportunity for the Texans to gain extra possessions will certainly be there against Indy.
The Texans have covered the spread in six of their last eight home games vs. the Colts.
Writer’s Prediction
Luck rebounds and has another big game as Foster is taken out of the equation. Take the Colts (-3) to win and cover on the road.
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