Win three straight and the Baltimore Ravens earn a playoff berth for the sixth time in seven seasons. The Ravens take their first step toward clinching a postseason spot when they welcome the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars to M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday. Can the Jaguars spoil Baltimore’s playoff push with a shocking upset? Read on as we breakdown this critical AFC showdown.
Paying attention to the AFC playoff race? Check out our previews for the AFC West showdown in the Broncos vs. Chargers and AFC East’s Dolphins vs. Patriots.
[sc:Football ]Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens Preview
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
When: Sunday, December 14, 1:00 PM ET
Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (+13.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5); total 45.5 – view all NFL lines
Betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars
The stage was set for another upset last Sunday as the Jaguars led Houston 13-10 in the first half. They held Ryan Fitzpatrick to just 27 passing yards, didn’t allow the Texans to convert on third down and held J.J. Watt in check heading into halftime. However, all the momentum they built came crumbling down as they gained only 73 yards, managed only five first downs, and gave up 17 unanswered points all in the second half to fall 27-13.
Another late collapse will be costly for the Jaguars as Baltimore have scored the second-most second half points this season (15.2 per game). The most successful part of their defense, the pass rush, may struggle to keep Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco in check. Baltimore’s offensive line has offered the Ravens quarterback plenty of protection, which has resulted in the second-fewest sacks in the NFL (16).
Still, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks may be able to beat the Ravens’ offensive line. Marks has 6.5 sacks in the last six games.
[sc:NFL240banner ]Offensively, the Jaguars may continue to struggle especially if they fail to stop the Ravens’ vaunted blitz. Filling in for injured starting right tackle Austin Pasztor, veteran Sam Young has been a liability in the offensive line as he was repeatedly beaten for three sacks from Houston’s J.J. Watt on Sunday. Young may continue to struggle lining up against Baltimore’s Terrell Suggs (8.5 sacks) or Elvis Dumervil (16 sacks, tied for first in the league).
If the offensive line can give Jags’ quarterback Blake Bortles enough time to make some throws, then he can exploit a vulnerable Ravens pass defense which has allowed 267.2 yards per game. Bortles won’t have to worry too much about adding to his NFL-leading 16 interceptions. Baltimore has allowed 21 touchdowns to eight interceptions in the season.
To gain some steam on the receiving game, Bortles will need to avoid throwing Cecil Shorts’ way. In the past three games, Shorts has caught only seven of 21 targets for 44 yards. Rookie Marqise Lee is a more viable target after catching 11 of 16 passes for 142 yards and a score in the past two games.
The Jags are 0-3-1 ATS in their four games as underdogs of more than eight points this season.
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Betting on the Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens overcame a slow start to rally past Miami 28-13 on Sunday in a game that was massive for both sides. Flacco had a big game racking up 269 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against the league’s second-best pass defense. He also jump-started a key 12-play 97-yard touchdown drive in the second quarter with a 15-yard run of his own.
Facing Jacksonville’s porous pass defense (244 yards allowed per game), expect Flacco to get going through the air especially with a talented receiving corps. Wide receiver Steve Smith Sr. has a team-high 889 yards receiving and six touchdowns this season.
While the receiving corps’ leading touchdown scorer Torrey Smith (eight) may not be able to be up to speed with a knee injury, Kamar Aiken offers a solid replacement. Aiken caught six of seven targets for a season-high 65 yards and a score against Miami.
While the Ravens can light up the scoreboard through the air, their bread and butter is still their fifth-ranked rushing offense. Justin Forsett has been almost unstoppable rushing for 471 yards and five touchdowns in the past four weeks. He should be able to run roughshod against Jacksonville’s rushing defense which has allowed 132.8 yards per game and 14 touchdowns in the season.
Meanwhile, Bernard Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro are capable backups to Forsett. Pierce and Taliaferro have averaged four and 4.3 yards per carry respectively.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens’ physical play has racked up 17 forced fumbles and 10 fumble recoveries this season. Big hits from Baltimore’s front seven such as Dumervil and Brandon Williamscould force the Jaguars to add to their 25 giveaways this season.
The Ravens’ pass rush will continue to miss Haloti Ngata (two sacks, two forced fumbles and two interceptions) due to a suspension for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. Still, Baltimore’s defense stepped up without their All-Pro defensive tackle as they racked up six sacks and allowed only 13 points agianst Miami on Sunday. Expect the Ravens to put up the same type of pressure to hamper Jacksonville’s struggling offense, even while Ngata remains off the field.
The Ravens are 4-2 ATS in home games this season.
Writer’s Prediction
The Ravens dominate from the onset, but allow enough garbage time production for Jacksonville to cover +13.5.
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