The Houston Texans dodged a bullet, upsetting the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, keeping their faint playoff hopes alive. To enter the postseason, Houston not only need to win against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17. They’ll also need Kansas City and Cleveland to win their respective games.
Can the Jags find a way to throw a wrench in the Texans’ plans? Read on as we break down this crucial Week 17 matchup.
It’s going to be the last day in the 2014 NFL regular season. Catch all of the games in our complete picks and predictions for Week 17. You can also check out the big NFC North-clinching game between the Lions and the Packers.
[sc:Football ]Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Preview
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
When: Sunday, December 28, 1:00 PM ET
Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) at Houston Texans (-10); total 40.5 – view all NFL lines
Betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars
Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles didn’t have the best statline on Thursday night. He completed just 13 passes for 115 yards, both career-lows in his first season as a pro. However, Bortles managed to impress as he led the Jaguars to a 21-13 win over Tennessee.
[sc:NFL240banner ]Down 10-0 with 3:46 left in the first half, Bortles sparked the Jaguars’ comeback completing five of seven passes for 42 yards and a touchdown and also had a nine-yard scramble to convert a third-and-9. Speaking of scrambling, Bortles finished with 50 yards on five carries. The rookie’s ability to extend plays with his legs will be crucial especially with the Texans’ star defender J.J. Watt always ready to pounce.
The Jags may have also found a solid replacement for running back Denard Robinson, who was placed on injured reserve after Week 14. Backup Jordan Todman needed just one carry to make a significant impact on Thursday night. He rushed for a 62-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter to give the Jaguars a 21-10 lead. Todman may be the Jags’ No. 1 back in this game with Toby Gerhart sporting a rib contusion.
Todman may not have as much success this time around. The Texans were excellent against the run in Week 16, limiting Baltimore’s top-10 rushing offense to 33 yards.
On the other side of the ball, Sen’Derrick Marks continues to have a Pro Bowl season. He closed Thursday night’s game with a sack on Titans quarterback Charlie Whitehurst to bring his season total to 8.5 sacks. Marks and Ryan Davis (6.5 sacks) form a formidable pass rush that should put pressure on Houston’s fourth-string quarterback.
The total has gone under in four of the Jags’ last five games.
Think the Jags can spoil Houston’s playoff bid? Create a betting account now and make your stand.
Betting on the Houston Texans
The Houston Texans were down to their fourth quarterback starting behind center in Case Keenum. In fact, Keenum wasn’t even preparing to direct Houston’s offense as he was out hunting deer earlier in the week. The Texans found a way to make it work, taking a dominant 25-13 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.
Houston’s defense did its best to cover for Keenum. J.J. Watt had a sack and four quarterback hits. Watt’s pressure was a big factor in Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco’s worst outing as a pro. Flacco finished with a miniscule 3.2 quarterback rating. The Houston’s star defensive lineman is due for another big day against Jacksonville. He repeatedly beat Jags tackle Sam Young to rack up three sacks in Week 14.
The secondary also had a big game. Cornerback Kareem Jackson had two picks off Flacco, while A.J. Bouye also had one. The Texans’ secondary should have a big day going against the Jags’ rookie quarterback Bortles, who has a league-leading 17 interceptions.
On the other side of the ball, wide receiver Andre Johnson became the second-fastest player in NFL history to reach 1,000 catches on Sunday. His first catch of the game was a 35-yarder from Keenum. Expect Johnson to continue being a deep threat especially with Jacksonville allowing the fifth-most completions of 20 yards or more downfield (57).
Meanwhile, running back Arian Foster took some direct snaps to help direct pressure off Keenum. Foster finished with 96 yards rushing on 25 carries. However, his biggest contribution to the game was in the passing department when he threw a touchdown pass to tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz.
Expect Foster to have a bigger day on the ground this time around. He already beat the Jags’ front seven for 127 yards and a score on 24 carries in Week 14.
The Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games.
Writer’s Prediction
The Texans win, but the Jags cover +10.
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