So the NFC North has come right down to the wire. The Detroit Lions have won four games in a row and enter the decisive Week 17 in an 11-4 deadlock with the three-time defending division champion Green Bay Packers. A win over their fierce rivals gives the Lions their first ever NFC North crown, but history will not be on the their side as they head to Lambeau, where they haven’t won for over two decades.
Can the Lions defy the odds and take the Packers’ division title on their own turf? Read on for a complete preview of this winner-takes-the-division matchup.
Over in the AFC, the San Diego Chargers need to pass one last test to enter as AFC wild-cards. That test comes in the form of the Kansas City Chiefs, who can also sneak in as wild-cards if results go their way. Check out our preview of that all-important matchup here.
[sc:Football ]Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Preview and Prediction
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay
When: Sunday, December 28, 4:25 PM ET
Line: Detroit Lions +7.5 at Green Bay Packers -7.5; total 47.5 – see all NFL lines
Betting on the Detroit Lions
Welcome back, Reggie Bush. The explosive running back, playing his third game back since being sidelined by an ankle injury, finally looked back to his best in the Lions’ 20-14 win over the Chicago Bears. Bush rushed for 54 yards on just seven carries and added 44 more receiving yards with a touchdown.
[sc:NFL240banner ]The Lions’ other offensive weapons also continued their impressive play. Running back Joique Bell rushed for at least 70 yards and had at least one rushing touchdown for the third time in four games. Meanwhile, star receiver Calvin Johnson topped 100 yards for the third time in just under a month.
Bush’s return to form transforms the Lions’ offense because of his abilities as both a runner and a receiver. The Packers have already had a taste of what Bush is capable of this season. Bush had 99 total yards and scored their only offensive touchdown in the Lions’ 19-7 win in Detroit. He also torched the Packers defense for 182 total yards in a huge 40-10 win against Green Bay late last season.
Having Bush and a full complement of offensive weapons will be huge for the Lions as they will likely need to score a significant amount of points to beat the Packers at Green Bay. Their defense – ranked No. 2 per DVOA through Week 15 – has the ability to corral Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense as the Bills did the week prior. However, the Lions D was powerless to stop the Patriots in their 34-9 defeat in New England back in Week 12.
Betting on the Green Bay Packers
An Aaron Rodgers injury is the last thing the Packers need in preparation for their biggest game of the regular season. Rodgers pulled his calf muscle in Green Bay’s 20-3 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But even while playing with an injury as well as an illness, Rodgers was still able to complete 77.5 percent of his throws for 318 yards.
Rodgers hasn’t been playing like an MVP frontrunner in the last two weeks. He played arguably the worst game of his career in their 21-13 loss to the Bills (17-for-42, 185 yards and two interceptions). But his struggles have had some legitimate causes: a) the Bills’ suffocating defense, b) that calf injury and c) playing both games on the road.
Rodgers has been a completely different species of quarterback at Lambeau Field this season, though. He has thrown for 2,108 yards (400 more than on the road), completed 66 percent of his passes (four percent better than on the road) and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 23:0 with a 132.6 passer rating.
The Packers, by extension, have been damn near unbeatable at home. They’re 7-0 (5-1-1 against the spread) at Lambeau and average a remarkable 41.1 points per game, five more than the second-place Patriots.
If Rodgers’ recent form is a little bit concerning, running back Eddie Lacy’s is good enough to allay too many fears of an offensive drop-off. Lacy has scored at least one touchdown in six of his last seven games and nine in total (five rushing, four receiving). Lacy has also averaged 4.7 yards per carry or better in his last five games.
And lest anyone forget, a Packers win at home against the Lions has been the surest bet in football for over two decades. Green Bay is an astounding 23-0 in its last 23 home games over Detroit and is 13-5-2 in its last 20 against the spread.
Writer’s Prediction
The Packers find a way past the Lions for another home but Detroit keeps close and covers the spread. Create a betting account now and get in on all the drama of the final week of the NFL regular season.
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