Bettors may be inclined to give the Chiefs the win, but not the cover here in Week 13. The reason? Kansas City has covered just once in their last six games overall, and yet has been phenomenal on the road, going 9-3 ATS in its last three games away. That being said, the NY Jets have been a bettor’s dream at this juncture, covering six of their last seven games and going 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six meetings against AFC foes.
At press, bettors at TopBet are almost split on both the spread and the total; with nearly 60% in favor of the Chiefs and taking the under-44 play. Kansas City has exceeded the total just twice in their last 11 games against squads with losing records, while the New York Jets have gone over in four of their last five, and are 4-1 O/U in their last five contests at home.
Just when you think things couldn’t get worse for Kansas City they lose to Buffalo, at home, a team that had essentially written off its season last week. The game score was close but the way they played Kansas City doesn’t deserve to be beating anybody. Their offense has completely fallen apart from what we all saw early in the season. The big plays have disappeared.
With that a lot more has fallen on quarterback Alex Smith. He is doing all he can but we are all well aware of his limitations. You have to love his toughness though. Did you see him push for that first down? Travis Kelce is one of the better tight ends in the game but that is a position that can be hard to go to for big plays when you really need them. Especially with Smith’s “play it safe” mentality. I know Kareem Hunt is taking heat for hitting the rookie wall but the like has to absorb some of that also, don’ they?
You have to wonder if the defense might be pointing fingers at the offense the last couple of weeks. They have given up 12 and 16 points respectively in losses. The defense seems to have recovered from the loss of Eric Berry but it has been exposed. Even in games where it is not giving up many points it is not making those really big plays either. Things are getting very restless in Kansas City so perhaps a road trip is not the worst thing in the world. Oddly they were at MetLife a few weeks back and lost to the Giants.
The Jets quickly slide back to obscurity but they are playing hard. In what could have easily been a give up game they forced Carolina to play four quarters on Sunday. This offense is pretty bad. They are more of a running team I suppose but Josh McCown had a really nice day last week – 307 yards and 3 touchdowns.
I am not a big fan of the receivers they have but Robby Anderson has scored in 5 straight games. He is long and can win some matchups. In the running game Matt Forte appears to be done. When a running back doesn’t have it anymore it can get pretty dark pretty quick. The other backs are uninspiring.
By comparison the Jets defense is a strength but that is relative. This group is essentially middle of the pack and lacking some of the big play talent we have gotten used to like Darrelle Revis. They give up a healthy amount of yardage on the ground. Look for the Chiefs to be committed to exploiting that.
Writer’s Prediction
If Andy Reid is any kind of coach he has to stop the slide at some point. They are still a favourite on the road and deservedly so. The Chiefs defense should be able to subdue the Jets offense. Once that is established the pressure will be off to force things on offense. I am not sure why but this feels like a game where we might remember the name Tyreek Hill. He has only 4 TDs on the season and might be due. Pick: Chiefs (-3.5)
