The 2016 NCAA Tournament East Region is a murderer’s row, and No. 4 Kentucky is one of its top contenders. The Wildcats reigned supreme in the SEC this season on the strength of their outstanding backcourt. But can they safely avoid an upset against the dangerous No. 13 Stony Brook Seawolves, who are making their first ever tournament appearance?
Let’s take a closer look at this round of 64 matchup from the East Region with our preview below. And for more on this incredibly tough region, check out our previews of No. 1 UNC vs. FGCU and No. 2 Xavier vs. No. 15 Weber State.
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March Madness No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 13 Stony Brook Preview
Where: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines
When: Thursday, March 17, 9:40 PM ET
Line: Kentucky Wildcats (-14.5) vs. Stony Brook Seawolves (+14.5); total 143.5 – view all NCAA Basketball lines
TV Broadcast: CBS
Betting on the Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games, and is priced at +350 to win the East Region.
With those two talented guards leading the way, the Wildcats were the most efficient offense in the nation, per KenPom.
While points don’t figure to be a problem for the Wildcats as long as Murray and Ulis are around, defense is a bit more of a question mark. They were only No. 70 in adjusted defensive efficiency. But Kentucky does have all the tools needed to match up well with Stony Brook.
The Seawolves rely heavily on the talents of Jameel Warney inside. The Wildcats, though, have a ton of length and depth on their frontcourt with Skal Labissiere, Alex Poythress, Derek Willis and Marcus Lee to make Warney’s life very difficult. Kentucky is seventh in the country in blocks at 5.6 per game.
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Betting on the Stony Brook Seawolves
For the first time in their 17-year existence, the Stony Brook Seawolves are going dancing. The Seawolves went 14-2 in the America East during the regular season and had relatively few problems during their run to the tournament title.
Three-time America East Player of the Year Jameel Warney was simply sensational in the tourney. The senior, who averaged close to 20 points and 11 rebounds this season, had a 27-point, 23-rebound performance against UMBC and exploded for a career-high 43 points on 18-of-22 shooting in the final against Vermont.
You may think Warney and the Seawolves have just been beating up on inferior opposition, but they did put on a very decent fight against their toughest non-conference opponent, Vanderbilt. Despite having to go up against the length of Vandy’s seven-footers, Warney still put up 22 points and 11 boards as Stony Brook lost 79-72 in overtime on the road.
Coincidentally, Vanderbilt was also the last team to beat Kentucky.
Warney will have to come up with another monstrous game for the Seawolves to pull off the stunner. But Kentucky just so happens to be one of the worst at cleaning up the offensive glass (34.8 percent opponents’ offensive rebound rate), and Stony Brook is one of the best in the country at crashing the offensive boards.
Writer’s Prediction
Kentucky’s suspect defense and rebounding allows Stony Brook (+14.5) to stick around and cover.
