Week 10 of the college football season shook things up significantly in terms of the big bowl games. LSU, Memphis, TCU and Michigan State all suffered their first losses of the season, knocking the latter three out of New Year’s schedule – for now.
Let’s take a look at the updated bowl projections heading into Week 11, and see how and why each team fits into their respective bowls. And for more on Week 11, check out our previews of Oklahoma vs. Baylor and Alabama vs. Mississippi State.
[sc:NCAAFArticles ]New Year’s Six Bowl Game Predictions – Week 11
Peach Bowl – Florida vs. Houston
[sc:NCAA240banner ]With Memphis’s loss to Navy, Houston has now taken poll position to claim the Group of Five berth in a New Year’s Six Bowl Game. The Cougars, who are priced at +125 to win the AAC, have a big West division matchup with Memphis this weekend. Check out our preview of that game here.
Florida will likely get the invite to meet the Cougars, seeing as it’s the most high-profile at-large team closest to the Peach Bowl venue in Georgia. The Gators clinched the SEC East, but will likely miss out on the Sugar Bowl to an SEC West team.
Fiesta Bowl – Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
A Fiesta Bowl between two big-time college names in Notre Dame and Oklahoma makes the most sense as things look at the moment. The Irish will remain highly-ranked after soundly beating Pitt, while the Sooners will be relatively close by from the Fiesta Bowl site of Glendale, Arizona.
The Fiesta Bowl Committee also has a prior relationship with both programs, having already invited Oklahoma five times and Notre Dame four times.
Rose Bowl – Stanford vs. Iowa
The Stanford Cardinal are still well on course to win the Pac-12 after beating up on Colorado, 42-10. The Cardinal are now priced at -200 to claim the conference and make that familiar trip to Pasadena for “The Granddaddy of Them All.”
The trip is less familiar for Iowa, who hasn’t appeared in the Rose Bowl since 1991. But the undefeated Hawkeyes now have the inside track on the Big Ten bid after Michigan State suffered a big loss to Nebraska.
Sugar Bowl – Baylor vs. LSU
Baylor wasn’t ranked in the top four of the CFP Committee’s first rakings, and it still won’t break in after a less than convincing 31-24 win over Kansas State. The Bears should still have the consolation of a Sugar Bowl berth as the Big 12 representative, though.
A meeting with LSU looks the most likely, seeing as the Tigers are second all-time in Sugar Bowl appearances with 13, and are still in line for New Year’s even with their loss to Alabama.
Orange Bowl (College Football Semifinal) – Clemson vs. Oklahoma State
Clemson will no doubt hold on to its No. 1 spot in the rankings after beating Florida State on Saturday. The Tigers could be matched up in a semifinal showdown against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who are now very much in contention for a semifinal spot after sinking TCU in emphatic fashion.
Cotton Bowl (College Football Semifinal) – Alabama vs. Ohio State
Alabama’s dominant win over LSU should catapult the Crimson Tide to No. 2 in the rankings from No. 4. That will likely set up a semifinal rematch with No. 3 Ohio State, who famously knocked Bama out in last year’s playoff.
National Championship Game – Alabama vs. Clemson
Alabama and Clemson have looked like the two best teams in the nation over the past few weeks, and the odds reflect that perception. The Tide are now +220 favorites to claim the national championship, while the Tigers are at +400. Those two will go 1-2 in the rankings and meet in the final.
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