Key Additions: WR Chris Hogan, WR Nate Washington, TE Martellus Bennett, G Jonathan Cooper, DE Chris Long, NT Terrance Knighton, DE/LB Shea McClellin, CB Cyrus Jones, G/OT Joe Thuney
Key Subtractions: WR Brandon LaFell, TE Scott Chandler, DT Dominique Easley, DE/DT Akiem Hicks, DE/OLB Chandler Jones
Strengths
New England was just a machine on offense last year. The Pats averaged 29 points per game, good for third in the NFL. And even with star quarterback Tom Brady slated to be suspended for a quarter of this season, the Pats still have the weapons to be one of the most fearsome offenses when he returns.
They added depth at receiver with Chris Hogan and Nate Washington to join Julian Edelman. Martellus Bennett should be an excellent complement to Rob Gronkowski in two-tight end sets. The return of Dion Lewis from an ACL tear and the re-signing of LeGarrette Blount should also provide options in the backfield.
Meanwhile, their offensive line, which struggled last season, will get back starting tackles Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer from injury. But perhaps more importantly, the legendary Dante Scarnecchia is set to return from retirement to coach the O-line.
And on the other side of the ball, Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower continue to form one of the best linebacking tandems in the entire league. The Pats don’t have the same top-line talent in the secondary apart from safety Devin McCourty, but they should have some pretty decent depth.
With all that talent at head coach Bill Belichick’s disposal, it’s no surprise to see the Pats as huge -220 favorites to claim a 13th AFC East title in 14 years.
Weaknesses
The Pats traded away top edge rusher Chandler Jones (12.5 sacks in 2015) during the offseason, which now leaves some question marks with the New England pass rush. It remains to be seen if Jabaal Sheard (eight sacks) can continue making as big an impact while taking on a bigger role. Chris Long is also a big risk after registering just four sacks in his last two injury-hit seasons with the Rams.
There are some doubts about their interior defensive line depth, especially after they let former first-rounder Dominique Easley walk. The Pats would also be in big trouble at linebacker if either Collins or Hightower misses significant time.
Key Player – Rob Gronkowski
When healthy, Rob Gronkowski is arguably the most unstoppable offensive force in the NFL. The burly tight end played in at least 17 games (including playoffs) for the second-straight year in 2015. He’s averaged around 75 catches, 1,100 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns in those two years. So yes, he’s quite valuable. (He’s priced at +7,500 to win MVP this season.)
Even without Gronk, Belichick and Brady are still good enough to will the Pats into the playoffs. But a healthy Gronk is a major factor that turns New England from run-of-the-mill contender to runaway +600 favorite to win Super Bowl LI, which are their current odds.
Key Game – at Pittsburgh (Oct. 24)
The Pats’ Week 7 matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers will likely be their defining game of the season. Tom Brady will have been a couple weeks removed from his four-game suspension by that time. Meanwhile, Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell will also be fresh off his own four-game ban.
This game could also have possible playoff implications. The Steelers are widely-tipped to challenge the Pats for the top seed in the AFC this year. The winner of their matchup would go a long way toward deciding homefield advantage in the postseason.
2015 Stats
Category
Stat (Rank)
Points per game
28.9 (#3)
Passing yards per game
286.7 (#5)
Rushing yards per game
87.8 (#30)
Scoring defense
19.7 (#10)
Writer’s Prediction
Brady’s suspension doesn’t significantly slow down the Pats. New England finishes 12-4, safely going over 10.5 regular season wins.
