Sevilla are having a spectacular debut season under Jorge Sampaoli. The Chilean has led them to third in La Liga, thanks in large part to a terrific home record. Sevilla are 9-1-1 at the Sanchez Pizjuan, with 23 goals scored and 11 goals conceded.
They added another home win over the weekend with a 2-0 victory over Eibar. They’ve now scored two or more goals in 6 of their last 7 home games in all competitions. Sevila won two of their three home games during the Champions League group stage, and scored 6 of their 7 goals at home.
Sevilla have won the Europa League three years in a row, but they now have an excellent opportunity to reach the quarterfinals of the Champions League for the first time in their history. Their matchup against Leicester was perhaps Sevilla’s best-case scenario for the round of 16. The surprise English champions were easily the weakest of the group winners, and are currently suffering a horrific run of form domestically.
Sevilla love to put a lot of pressure on their opponents with their constant pressing, something Leicester could struggle to cope with for 90 minutes. Leicester’s central defensive partnership is woefully slow, and Sevilla’s speed and energy up front will be very tough for them to contain.
Leicester City are in a very bad spot at the moment. From incredible long-shot Premier League champions last season, they face the very real prospect of relegation this season. The magic of last year’s remarkable run has worn off, as a host of their star performers – Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez, Wes Morgan – have all crashed spectacularly back down to earth.
There’s been talk of sacking manager Claudio Ranieri, who has seemingly lost the locker room. But he is guaranteed at least one more game in charge as he leads Leicester to this round-of-16 first leg.
However, the chances of his team leaving Spain with an advantage are slim to say the least. Leicester have been horrific away from home all season long. They still haven’t won an away Premier League game this season, losing 10 and drawing three. Leicester did win once away in the Champions League – a 3-0 spanking of Club Brugge in their first group game.
That poor away form in stark contrast to last season, when they were so effective outside of King Power Stadium. But they just can’t do the two things which made that strategy work – defend deep for long stretches and clinically convert counter-attacking opportunities – and it’s doubtful they can do either of those things in Spain.
Writer’s Prediction
Sevilla (-300) takes control of the tie with a 2-0 first-leg win.
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