After going unbeaten in their first 19 games this season, the Virginia Cavaliers suffered a 69-63 loss at the hands of the Duke Blue Devils, thus leaving the still undefeated Kentucky Wildcats with the strong claim of being the best team in the nation.
But are the Wildcats really better than Virginia? We examined each team’s offense, defense, depth, coach, and even their strength of schedule to determine which program is better. Read more about it below, and don’t miss our previews of a couple marquee college basketball matchups this week in Duke vs. Georgia Tech and Ohio State vs. Purdue.
[sc:MarchMadness ]Kentucky Wildcats or the Virginia Cavaliers
Offense
The disparity in scoring isn’t that big between these two programs with the Wildcats averaging 74.1 PPG and the Cavaliers churning out 68.0 PPG. Even on the adjusted offensive efficiency rankings, both teams remain within earshot of each other. Per 100 possessions, the Wildcats are ninth in the nation with a 116.6 average while the Cavs are eighth with 117.1. That being said, Kentucky still appears to own the slim advantage on offense merely because the team has more dependable scoring options.
[sc:NCAAB240banner ]Kentucky’s elite collection of talents gives the Wildcats serious scoring threats in its backcourt and frontcourt. The Wildcats are led by Aaron Harrison, who tops the team with 11.5 PPG, while rising star Devin Booker complements Harrison with 10.7 PPG. The big men are fronted by Willie Cauley-Stein (8.9 PPG) and Karl-Anthony Towns (8.2 PPG), two players who can take over the offense when given a fair share of possessions.
On the flipside, Virginia’s offense mostly revolves around Justin Anderson (13.8 PPG), Malcolm Brogdon (13.7 PPG), and Anthony Gill (10.9 PPG). Take out any of those three players and the Cavs’ offense will not look as potent. Kentucky, meanwhile, has so many weapons that Coach John Calipari can freely use a platoon system of substituting players without the offense suffering a bit.
Advantage: Kentucky
Defense
As of this writing, Virginia is tops in the nation with a defense that constricts its opponents to only 50.2 PPG, while Kentucky isn’t far behind with just 50.7 points allowed per game. Kentucky, however, is slightly better in making their opponents miss their shots (32.6 FG%) than Virginia (35.1 FG %).
Both teams’ defenses have been effective this season and they are doing it in different manners. As for Virginia, the team likes to play a deliberate style of basketball. As Wes McElroy of Richmond Times-Dispatch puts it, the Cavs’ “Pack-Line defense is college basketball’s boa constrictor. It lets its prey up the court, watches it settle in, and then slowly suffocates it in a panic as the shot clock winds down.”
Kentucky, meanwhile, uses its size and length to scuttle their opponents’ offensive sets. The Wildcats have 10 players that are 6-6 or taller, giving them a scary-good rim protection that results to 7.5 BPG average—second best in the nation. Furthermore, the inside presence of the likes of Towns (2.3 BPG) and Cauley-Stein (1.7 BPG) allows the team’s guards to gamble for steals knowing that they have excellent support behind them. The Wildcats are 49th in steals with 7.5 a game. For comparison, the Cavaliers come up with 4.4 BPG and 4.9 SPG.
Advantage: Kentucky
Depth
As mentioned earlier, the Wildcats enjoy a roster with top-level talent from top to bottom, which is something Virginia doesn’t have. Despite losing some of its stars in Julius Randle and James Young to the NBA Draft, the Wildcats simply reloaded and bagged four top 25 recruits namely Karl Towns, Trey Lyles, Tyler Ulis, and the aforementioned Booker. Those players join a cast of talented carry-overs headed by the Harrison twins, Cauley-Stein, and Dakari Johnson to name a few.
With that amount of talent, Calipari has the luxury of confidently spreading minutes across his lineup. In fact, nine players from Kentucky average at least 18 minutes per games, all averaging at least 5.5 PPG. As for the Cavs, Coach Tony Bennett has a much shorter rotation with six players spending 18 minutes on the floor per game.
London Perrantes (32.6 MPG) and Malcolm Brogdon (30.7 MPG) eats up a lot of playing time mainly because Bennett doesn’t have as much confidence on backup guards B.J. Stith (1.0 PPG on 4.7 MPG) and Marial Shayok (4.3 PPG on 15.7 MPG) to run the offense. This differs entirely from the way Calipari uses his own pair of freshmen guards in Booker (10.7 PPG on 20.9 MPG) and Ulis (5.7 PPG and 3.6 APG on 21.1 MPG).
Advantage: Kentucky
Coach
On paper, Calipari will always have the clear advantage over Bennett. Calipari has been to the Final Four five times, including last season when he guided the Wildcats to the NCAA National Championship Game. He’s been coaching in the college ranks since 1982—spending a few years in between in the NBA—and through those years, has earned three National Coach of the Year awards.
However, the ability of Bennett to lead a team is one that shouldn’t be taken lightly. Just last season, he steered the Cavs into a 16-2 record in the ACC and entered the National Tournament as No. 1 seeds. With the success of that team, ESPN named Bennett as the 14th-best coach heading into this season. So far, he’s done an impressive job at the helm of Virginia, coaching the Cavs to 19-straight victories to start the season.
Even more impressive is the fact that Bennett is doing it without any former McDonald’s All-Americans in the team’s roster and just one top 100 recruit in Sith. Kentucky, on the other hand, has nine former McDonald’s All-Americans.
That being said, Calipari’s experience and solid track record gives the Wildcats the advantage in terms of coaching.
Advantage: Kentucky
Performance Against Top Competition
At the end of the Championship Week, the selection committee will look at each team and ask this question: how did they fare against the competition. So far, the Wildcats have been unable to suffer a defeat. Of the 21 wins of Kentucky, 12 are against Top 100 RPI teams. They came nearest to losing against Ole Miss, a Top 48 RPI program. On the other hand, the Cavaliers have an 11-1 record against Top 100 RPI teams, their lone loss coming against Top 5 RPI Duke. Kentucky enjoys a slightly easier schedule than Virginia, as the Wildcats have 10 sub-150 RPI opponents. Virginia only has six.
Advantage: Virginia
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