Most of the Oregon Ducks’ campaign this year has been brutal, but that wasn’t the case last Saturday when they shockingly upset the No. 12 Utah Utes, 30-28.
Freshman quarterback Justin Herbert had the pinnacle moment of his short career in Oregon, scoring the game-winning touchdown in the dying seconds of that game against the Utes and finishing with 324 yards and three TDs on 30-of-43 passing. He’ll definitely be under a lot of people’s radars next year, as he has 18 touchdowns to just four picks with a 64.3-percent completion rate this season.
But Herbert won’t be alone next year in leading the Ducks back to Pac-12 supremacy, as running backs Royce Freeman and Tony Brooks-James provide a one-two punch from the backfield that’s hard to contain. Utah’s normally-stout defense surrendered a combined 207 rushing yards and a score to Freeman (129) and Brooks-James (78) last week, and the two of them have a total of seven 100-yard rushing games this season.
A strong offense is certainly keeping the Ducks competitive, and it also makes up for a very porous defense that’s allowed 42.1 points per game this season. This Saturday, their firepower will go a long way towards keeping their dominance over the Beavers, whom they’ve beaten eight-consecutive times to date (albeit just 4-3-1 ATS). Six of their wins during that span of Civil War clashes were won by Oregon in double-digits – including last year’s colossal 52-42 affair – which means scoring enough points could likely lead the Ducks to yet another victory against their inter-state rivals.
Not to be outdone by the Ducks, the Oregon State Beavers snapped their five-game losing streak last Saturday by whacking the Arizona Wildcats, 42-17.
And much like Oregon’s QB, Oregon State had an afternoon to remember from its own signal-caller in Marcus McMaryion, who threw a career-high five touchdowns to go with 265 yards on a very efficient 16-of-19 passing. However, the game against Arizona was just McMaryion’s fifth start for the team since taking over the struggling Darell Garretson, so putting up such gaudy numbers against the Wildcats’ paper-thin defense can still be taken with a grain of salt.
We can’t put a ton of faith in lead running back Ryan Nall, either. Although Nall had 124 rushing yards and a score on 23 carries against Arizona, he did miss two games this season with an injured left foot and he’s just averaging 88.4 yards per game this season at that.
While limiting the Wildcats to just 17 points was a welcome sight, the Beavers had the benefit of facing Arizona’s bad offense that ranks 115th in the nation in points scored per contest. In reality, Oregon State’s defense has allowed 31.1 points per game. The team’s 42-point outing last week was quite an anomaly too, as it is averaging just a little over 25 points per game this season.
Not even a season finale at Reser Stadium against the Ducks could inspire confidence for the Beavers, and not just because their rivals have owned them for nearly a decade now, but also since they’re just 3-3 at home this year. What may compel you to bet in favor of Oregon State, though, is that the team is 4-2 against the spread and with all those victories coming in succession since the first week of October.
Writer’s Prediction
The Ducks (-3) survive the shootout in Corvallis, 46-37.
