The UFC 249 train keeps rolling and America is getting amped up about the biggest thing in sports at the moment. We’ve previewed the overall event and provided our picks for the Ferguson vs Gaethje and Ngannou vs Rozenstruik matches and now we pivot to the exciting featherweight meeting between Jeremy Stephens vs Calvin Kattar this Saturday evening in Jacksonville Florida. Both fighters are coming off of losses and are looking to move up in rankings for this competitive division. Which one will move up a slot in the most interesting (for a variety of reasons) UFC year in recent memory? Let’s find out.
Stephens currently sits at #7 in the UFC featherweight rankings, with a pretty unimpressive MMA record, losing over 60 percent of his bouts. His last UFC fight was against Yair Rodríguez back in October 2019, a match that he lost by unanimous decision. There’s not a lot for bettors to like about this fighter, however Stephens does boast a respectable Strikes Absorbed per Minute (SApM) rating of just 2.98, which compares quite nicely to Kattar’s much more concerning SApM of 6.36. If Stephens can maintain his defensive prowess and actually land a few solid hits he may actually make this fight more interesting that it looks on paper. This underdog may pull off a surprise this Saturday.
While Kattar has a much better record that Stephens he is currently ranked 9th for his division and is certainly looking to make an example out of his opponent this Saturday to show he should be in the top five. Kattar lost his last fight to Magomedsharipov back in November, but racked up two wins prior to that, defeating Ricardo Lamas and Chris Fishgold. Going into his fight against Stephens, Kattar packs a 5.12 Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) rating to Stephen’s 3.09 although they are near equals (less than 1-point differential) in Striking Accuracy. Kattar has an edge on Takedown Defense at 77% to his opponent’s 65% rating, but this fight won’t be ending by submission. It will be a slug fest that goes the length, which is why the sportsbook gives the bout second-to-last place odds (+3000) to end in a timely manner. A full-length fight favors Kattar.
