The Florida State Seminoles just barely passed perhaps their biggest test of the season as they edged past Notre Dame at home. Jameis Winston and the undefeated Noles now have a clear road toward a spot in the College Football Playoff… if they can overcome the potential stumbling block presented by the Louisville Cardinals on the road.
Winston has stepped up his game in the clutch this season, but can the Heisman winner overcome what could easily be the toughest defense he’s ever seen in the Cardinals’ D?
Find the answer to this question and more with our comprehensive preview of the Noles vs. Cards. Afterwards, don’t forget to also check out our preview of the scintillating SEC West showdown between Auburn vs. Ole Miss here.
[sc:NCAAFArticles ]Florida State Seminoles vs. Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview
Where: Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, Louisville
When: Thursday, October 30, 7:30 PM ET
Line: Florida State Seminoles (-5) at Louisville Cardinals (+5) – view all NCAA Football lines
Betting on the Florida State Seminoles
Florida State was pushed all the way at home by Notre Dame, but the defending champions rallied to pull out a hard-fought 31-27 victory to extend their winning streak to 23 games. However, they also continued their worrying trend of failing to cover. The Seminoles are now just 1-7 against the spread this season.
[sc:NCAA240banner ]It was another very shaky performance from the Noles overall, with their defense and running game continuing to struggle. While allowing over 400 total yards of offense to a top-five ranked team isn’t disastrous, it’s now the fourth time they’ve given up such yardage after doing so just once last season.
Meanwhile, their running game had another stinker, producing just 50 yards on 26 carries against the Irish. Don’t expect the ground game to suddenly be a factor against Louisville, whose run defense has been outstanding this season.
That only means more responsibility on quarterback Jameis Winston’s shoulders, but the reigning Heisman has been carrying the offense just fine so far this season. Winston had another stellar game against the Irish with 273 passing yards and two touchdowns. He was particularly spellbinding in the second half, as he completed 15 of 16 throws for 181 yards and a TD.
Because of his suspension against Clemson earlier this year, Winston will be up against his toughest test this season in Louisville’s defense, whose pass rush is on par with that of the Tigers’. But Winston has shown that he’s more than capable of handling the pressure.
He ate up the Irish blitz, completing 10 of 12 passes and throwing both of his touchdown passes against five or more pass rushers. Winston now has 26 career touchdown passes against the blitz, the most among Power Five quarterbacks since the start of last season.
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Betting on the Louisville Cardinals
This year’s Louisville Cardinals can lay serious claim to being potentially the toughest defense Jameis Winston’s ever faced. The Cards lead the nation in total defense, allowing just 245.8 yards per game, are third in rushing defense (68.8 yards allowed) and are fourth in scoring defense (14.6 points allowed).
That elite-level defense has been a big reason why the total has gone under in six of Louisville’s eight games this season.
They’re a less impressive 12th in passing yards allowed, but make no mistake; they can still disrupt the passing game. They’re second in the nation in both sacks (28) and interceptions (15). The Noles’ offensive line has struggled to protect Winston this season (they’ve allowed 15 sacks) and Winston himself has thrown six interceptions to date, so the Cardinals have a great shot at adding to those already impressive numbers.
Offense has been the biggest issue for Louisville this season, but there’s more optimism on that side of the ball after their most recent 30-18 home win over North Carolina State two weeks ago.
The Cardinals finally had their star running back Michael Dyer and wide receiver DeVante Parker healthy for the first time this season, and both contributed heavily to the win. Dyer had 173 rushing yards in his first start of the year while Parker had 132 receiving yards in his first game of the year.
While they’re not the most explosive offense in the world, don’t discount the possibility of them looking good against an unreliable Noles defense that coughed up 41 points on the road to NC State last month.
Writer’s Prediction
Winston rises up to the occasion to carry the Noles to another victory, but their defense keeps the Cardinals within striking distance. Take Louisville to cover at home against Florida State (-5).
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