Round 16 of the much-anticipated Brady vs. Manning Bowl will headline Week 9 of the NFL season, with the Patriots and Broncos both riding impressive four-game winning streaks on the strength of their all-world quarterbacks.
Peyton Manning and the Broncos struck the latest blow in the rivalry by knocking Tom Brady out in last season’s AFC Championship Game, but Brady and the Pats still hold the 10-5 edge in the series and haven’t lost to Manning (or anyone) at home for quite some time. Will the fortress that is Foxboro be enough for the Pats to hold off the brilliant Broncos?
Get ready for this battle of AFC heavyweights with our comprehensive preview below. Also, get a better feel for the upcoming week with our complete Week 9 picks and predictions.
[sc:Football ]Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots Betting Preview
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro
When: Sunday, November 2, 4:30 PM ET
Line: Denver Broncos (+3.5) at New England Patriots (-3.5); total 55.5 – view all NFL lines
Betting on the Denver Broncos
Ever since their bye week, the Denver Broncos have looked every bit the Super Bowl contenders they’ve been made out to be. The Broncos have gone a sizzling 4-0 since their Week 4 break and have decimated opponents by an average margin of victory of 18.5 points. Unsurprisingly, they’ve covered all four games comfortably.
[sc:NFL240banner ]The Broncos’ last two wins have been especially impressive, as they trounced two playoff-caliber teams in the San Francisco 49ers and San Diego Chargers by 25 and 14 points, respectively, in consecutive weeks. Granted, both of those defenses were decimated by injuries, but that doesn’t take away from their offense’s great play.
Peyton Manning and co. have been scoring like it’s 2013 in the last four games, averaging a robust 37.3 points per game. Top wideout Demaryius Thomas has been Manning’s main weapon, with at least eight catches and an absurd 156 yards per game average with five touchdowns in his last four games. Fellow wideout Emmanuel Sanders also had a breakout game against the Chargers with 120 yards and three touchdowns.
On the other side, their much-hyped defense has been one of the best in the league, ranking fifth in total defense (315 yards allowed per game) and first in rushing defense (72.4 yards allowed per game).
The common traits of the three teams that have either defeated the Pats (the Dolphins and Chiefs) or have come close (the Jets) this season are a) a pass rush that can disrupt Brady’s timing and b) a running game that rushes for 200 yards or more.
The Broncos’ tick the first box, with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware leading a Broncos pass rush that’s sixth in the league in adjusted sack rate through Week 8.
They also tick the second box, as they have averaged 130 rushing yards in their last three games and two touchdowns in each of their last two. They’ll be going up against a Pats defense that has surrendered 371 total rushing yards in the last two weeks since losing run-stopping linebacker Jerod Mayo.
Betting on the New England Patriots
It wasn’t that long ago that everyone was wondering what’s happened with the Pats offense. As it turns out, reports of Tom Brady and the Pats’ demise after a 41-14 road loss to the Kansas City Chiefs have been greatly exaggerated. Since that loss, the Pats have reeled off four wins in a row, covering three out of four.
The total has also gone over in their last five games, with a lot of help from the suddenly-prolific Pats offense. New England is averaging close to 40 points per game over its last four games, including a brutal 51-23 beatdown of the Chicago Bears at home on Sunday.
Brady was simply spectacular as he completed 30 of 35 passes (a ridiculous 85.7 percent completion) for 354 yards and five touchdowns. During their winning streak, Brady’s touchdown-to-interception ratio is a flawless 11:0.
Brandon LaFell has emerged as the team’s unlikely top wideout, and he played like it with 11 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown (his fourth of the year) against the Bears. But perhaps the biggest development has been the resurgence of one Rob Gronkowski. Gronk looked like the Gronk of old with 149 yards and three touchdowns to give Brady that dominating red zone target.
But with all due respect to the Bengals, Bills, Jets and Bears, the Broncos in are a different league defensively than those the Pats have faced over the past month, especially against the pass. The New England O-line, while somewhat improved, could have its hands full against a very formidable Denver pass rush.
The Pats know a thing or two about defending the pass themselves, having limited their opponents to an NFL-best 208 passing yards per game. The cornerback duo of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner more than held their own against the Bears’ talented receivers, and they won’t make things any easier for the Broncos’ wideouts.
New England is currently on a 13-game home winning streak. They’ve gone 9-4 against the spread, with the over also going 9-4 in those 13 games. Brady and the Pats have also won the last three meetings with Manning in Foxboro.
Writer’s Prediction
The Broncos’ superior defense keeps Brady in check, while Manning does his thing on offense. Take Denver to win and cover -3.5 on the road. Create a betting account now and be part of one of the NFL’s most enduring rivalries.
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