The New England Patriots suffered one of the worst losses of the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady era Monday night as they were routed by the Kansas City Chiefs, 41-14. This blowout came on the heels of the Pats scoring just 16 points at home against the lowly Oakland Raiders, which had already brought some of the Pats’ offensive problems to light.
So why exactly are the Pats looking so un-Pats-like on offense? Is it because Tom Brady’s washed up? Has Bill Belichick lost his magic touch?
As the Pats prepare for their Week 5 meeting with the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals, where New England is a rare +1.5-point underdog, let’s delve deeper into the specifics of their struggles thus far this season, and how they may go about turning things around. And for a more balanced look at this big game, check out our Bengals vs. Patriots game preview.
[sc:Football ]Breaking Down the Patriots Offense’s Early-Season Problems
Tom Brady’s Decline
When discussing any team’s offense, looking at the quarterback position is often the best place to start. And in assessing the Pats offense’s stuggles, Tom Brady’s poor play has predictably been the lightning rod for most people’s criticism.
[sc:NFL240banner ]Statistically speaking, Brady has been flat out bad. A quick look at his stats tells the story. Brady is completing less than 60 percent of his passes; only Nick Foles has a worse completion rate among regular starting QBs. His passer rating is currently in the 70s, which would be a new career low. And he’s averaging just 5.77 yards per attempt, which would also be the worst in the NFL if not for Derek Carr.
A deeper dive into next-level statistics only reinforces the badness. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Brady is missing his intended targets 25 percent of the time, the third-worst rate in the league. He’s also struggling to complete any throws of significant distance. He’s completing just 32 percent of passes beyond 10 yards and a pitiful 6.3 percent of 20 or more yards, both league-worst marks.
Brady’s age – he’s now 37 – is an inevitable factor brought up in discussing his decline, and his inability to throw downfield gives some weight behind that argument. However, is Brady’s poor play more a result of other factors – such as the O-line and the receivers – in the Pats offense as opposed to the cause? Let’s take a look.
The Offensive Line’s Porous Pass Protection
The Patriots’ offensive line underwent a massive shakeup before the season starter, with the retirement of its excellent position coach Dante Scarnecchia and the trading away of Logan Mankins. Some would argue that the 32-year-old Mankins is already in decline and his presence might not make much difference, but there’s no argument that the unit he left is struggling mightily.
Even the best quarterbacks struggle to perform when put under pressure, and Brady has been pressure a lot this season. New England’s O-line has allowed 55 total pressures (sacks, hits and hurries) through four games, the most in the league. Allowing your 37-year-old quarterback to get sacked and hit that many times isn’t the most ideal situation.
A Poor Receiving Corps
And when Brady has had time to throw, he’s not throwing to receivers in the calibre of Randy Moss or Wes Welker anymore. Instead, he’s got Julian Edelman as his No. 1 guy. That’s not meant to be a knock on Edelman, who’s been excellent since last year. It’s just that he’s been shoehorned into playing the top receiver, and has consequently shifted to the corner when he’s arguably best suited to the slot.
It also hasn’t helped that he’s just about the only reliable receiver Brady has at this point. Brady’s completion rate to Edelman is 73.5 percent; it drops to 58 percent for everyone else. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, despite his three touchdown catches, is still not yet at full speed after his knee injury. And even with his six-catch, 119-yarrd breakout game against the Chiefs, Brandon LaFell has still caught less than half of his 22 targets this season.
Their other three wideouts have apparently been frozen out of the offense. Danny Amendola has played in less than half the snaps since Week 1, which was also the last time he caught a pass. Meanwhile, Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson didn’t play at all against the Chiefs.
Brady rightly deserves his share of blame, but even Peyton Manning himself would struggle to play behind such a porous O-line while throwing to a substandard receiving corps.
Room for Improvement
Despite the many issues facing the Pats’ offense, proclaiming doom and gloom after just a quarter of the season is way too premature. This team has way too long of a track record to be counted out this early.
The Pats also had similar concerns at receiver last season, and still conspired to forge a top five offense per DVOA. There’s still a chance Gronk gets stronger as the season goes along, and one would expect Tim Wright, the tight end they traded for Mankins, to eventually get more involved in the offense. Running back Shane Vereen has been conspicuously missing from their attack; his re-inclusion could also be a welcome help.
The O-line admittedly needs a lot of work, as they need their quarterback healthy and upright. Keeping Brady protected and secured in the pocket will only have a positive effect on his play.
However, these changes will need time, which may not be enough to see the Pats overcome a very impressive Bengals team in Week 5. The Cincinnati defense has been excellent so far, allowing a miserly 11 points per game. Brady and the Pats may yet turn their season around, and they might have to do so with a two-game losing streak.
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