As we enter Week 15 the San Francisco 49ers are +400 to win the Super Bowl, behind only the Baltimore Ravens (+250). This Sunday evening the 49ers face the 4-9 Atlanta Falcons and are expected by all experts to extend their all-time record against Atlanta to 48-31-1 and widen the gap between them and the Seattle Seahawks as favorites to win the 2019 NFC West Division. Matt Ryan and company however, are just playing for pride at this point, and after the Falcon’s QB became the 10th shot-caller in league history to reach 50,000 career passing yards during a Week 14 win over the Carolina Panthers you may expect him to carry some momentum into Week 15 and keep the game closer than the sportsbook suggests. At press, Vegas odds favor the home team by 11-points.
If you weren’t a believer in the 49ers earlier in the season, you must be now. The sportsbook actually favored their Week 14 opponent, the New Orleans Saints, by 3-points last Sunday but yours truly didn’t buy into Vegas odds and correctly picked a win for San Francisco. Jimmy Garoppolo connected on 26/35, throwing for 349 yards and 4 touchdowns at the forgivable expense of one interception. Broncos’ acquisition Emmanuel Sanders backed Garoppolo up with a throw for a TD of his own, in what would be the most exciting play by the 49ers against the Saints. In a second quarter trick play the receiver tossed a falling, 35-yard touchdown to running back Raheem Mostert en route to a close 48-46 win over New Orleans. In total, Mostert managed 69 yards on 10 carries while RB Matt Breida had 54 yards on 6 carries but without a TD. Receiver Kendrick Bourne led in that latter capacity, with two-touchdowns on three catches.
Going into their game against the Atlanta Falcons this Sunday, the 49ers continue to stand tall in the league, ranked 2nd in defense and rushing, and 4th on offense. Their passing game (13th in the league) will be their only achilles heel against an opponent that is ranked 3rd in that arena despite a losing record. When playing at home this season, the 49ers are 3-2-1 against the spread (ATS), covering 60% of the time.
Betting on the Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
As mentioned in the introduction, Falcons’ seasoned QB made some history in their Week 14 40-20 win against the Panthers. On the way to his 50,000 career passing yards milestone he connected on 20 of 34 passes for 313 yards and 2 touchdowns with zero interceptions. Receivers Olamide Zaccheaus (93 yards) and Calvin Ridley (76 yards) caught Ryan’s throws for one TD apiece while running backs Devonta Freeman (84 yards) and Brian Hill (62 yards) rushed for one each as well.
Earlier in the week it would not be unreasonable to suggest that the Falcons have a shot at covering the spread against the 49ers this week, but that may not be the case. Atlanta faces a few medical concerns coming into Sunday against San Francisco, as the team’s official injury report states that a total of seven players did not suit up for practice on Wednesday, with Falcons running back Devonta Freeman heading up the list with a bothersome knee. That said, Freeman, who leads the team in rushing with 506 yards, is fully expected to play against the 49ers but his output may be limited – bettors take note. After a win this season, the Falcons are 1-2 ATS and are just 2-4 ATS when playing on the road, covering just 33.3% of the time.
