The 5-7-1 Cleveland Browns are theoretically still alive in the playoff spot hunt in the AFC. The same is true for the 6-7 Denver Broncos, though, both teams have extremely thin room for error, given the timing of the season.
The Browns are +30,000 to win the AFC title, while the Broncos are priced +7,500 to win the conference.
The Browns must be feeling good about themselves following a 26-20 win over the Carolina Panthers at home in Week 14. Against the Panthers, rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield showcased his potent and accurate arm by completing 18 of 22 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown with zero interceptions. The good thing for Mayfield is that the Broncos team he’ll face next no longer has the glowing defensive menace it used to have in previous seasons. Denver today is only 26th in the league with 264.2 passing yards allowed per game. They also surrender a middle-of-the-road 64.39 pass completion percentage. That’s the kind of defense Mayfield can take advantage, but the Browns could also capitalize on the Broncos’ stop unit that is 19th in the NFL against the run (119.2 rushing yards allowed per game). That’s good news for another rookie in running back Nick Chubb, who rushed for 66 yards and a touchdown in the Carolina game.
On the road so far this season, Cleveland is 1-5 straight up (SU) and 3-3 against the spread (ATS). Looking closer, we see that the Browns are 3-1 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.
Betting on the Denver Broncos (6-7)
The Broncos wasted a grand opportunity to build a bigger chance for a playoff seed when they lost to the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday on the road, 20-14. Prior to that, Denver was on a three-game win streak, a stretch that included inspiring victories over legitimate Super Bowl contenders, Los Angeles Chargers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Another golden opportunity to win comes this weekend against the Browns, who may have improved, but still has plenty of holes the Broncos can abuse. Take for example the Browns’ leaky run defense that is only 28th in the league with 133.3 rushing yards given up per contest. Philip Lindsay should find vast green spaces to run against that kind of defense. Speaking of Lindsay, the un-drafted rookie out of Colorado has 967 rushing yards on the season to go with nine touchdowns on a 5.8 yards average per carry. He and fellow rookie Royce Freeman are mostly responsible why the Broncos are seventh in the league with 130.2 rushing yards per game.
The under is 5-0 in the Broncos’ last five home games.
