Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee
When: Saturday, November 26, 2016 – 8:00 PM ET
Line: Florida Gators (+6.5) vs. Florida State Seminoles (-6.5) – view all NCAA Football odds and lines
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Betting on the Florida Gators (+6.5)
The Gators are on the heels of a big 16-10 win over the LSU Tigers. With the victory, they captured the SEC East title and gave head coach Jim McElwain his biggest win with the team.
It was the run game and the defense that led the Gators. Running back Jordan Scarlett had his third straight game with 100-plus rushing yards, while the D made big stops on the red zone, including a goal line stand and a forced fumble. They stuffed the Tigers’ much-hyped backfield duo of Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice, limiting the pair to a combined 123 yards on 3.8 yards per carry.
QB Austin Appleby, the second-stringer who is replacing the injured Luke Del Rio, only had 144 yards, but he threw a 98-yard bomb in the third quarter that gave Florida its first lead of the game.
As they now look ahead to battling their bitter rivals at Tallahassee, the task is much tougher than previous weeks. Appleby (196.2 ypg, 62-percent comp. rate as a starter) has to be trusted more; Scarlett has had more rushes than he has throws in the past two weeks (42 to 38). The offensive line has to be extra prepared as well, as they will face one of the country’s most aggressive pass rushers.
The defense, who gives up the third-fewest points per game (11.8) in the nation, should have an exciting battle with the Seminoles’ top 30 offense. The unit is in the cream of the crop of college football defenses.
They will look to give Deondre Francois and Dalvin Cook problems, as the Gators only allow QBs to throw for 160 ypg and complete 44.5 percent of their passes, and RBs to only gain 3.3 yards per carry.
Florida is 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS) in its last six games as underdogs.
Betting on the Florida State Seminoles (-6.5)
Head coach Jimbo Fischer and his boys are simply on a roll. The Seminoles have won three straight games, with the last two being 30-plus point blowouts. This Saturday, they are in a great position to extend it to four, as they have dominated the Gators in the past several years.
The offensive and defensive unit went off last week in the 45-14 win against Syracuse. Deondre Francois passed for 315 yards and two TDs, Dalvin Cook rushed for 225 yards and four TDs, and the defense had eight sacks, 10 tackles for loss, and two interceptions.
In the offense’s upcoming matchup with the Gators’ mighty defense, the Seminoles will again ride the eyes and feet of Dalvin Cook, who is having a very prolific year. He currently has 1,467 yards (133.3 per game) and 17 TDs, both of which are sixth-most in the nation. The offense isn’t one of the elites, but they are up there with the list of respected squads, ranking inside the top 30 of points per game (35.6), passing ypg (279.6), yards per play (6.5), and total offense (482.3).
The same goes on defense. Although they don’t intimidate teams on D the way Michigan, Alabama, or Florida does, the Seminoles boast a good pass-rushing ability, as evidenced to their nation-leading 41 sacks. It’s a good sign that the front seven is producing well, because they will be tested a lot by Jordan Scarlett and his linemen.
As for giving up points, it’s been pretty decent in the last six weeks, with five teams being successfully held to 20 points or less.
The Seminoles have beaten the Gators three straight times (1-2 ATS), two of which were by 25 points or more.
Writer’s Prediction
The Seminoles (-6.5) win, 30-20.
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