The Colts are just a mess this season. They are now 2-4 (3-2-1 ATS) – last place in a very bad AFC South – after a horrific collapse on Sunday night against the Houston Texans. They were up by 14 points with just seven minutes left in the fourth quarter, but still conspired to lose 26-23 in overtime.
Their injury-riddled defense has been atrocious. It looked pretty competent for three-plus quarters against Houston, but that’s probably more due to the Texans offense’s poor play on than anything the Colts were doing. Even their coaching was abysmal, as a highly-questionable play call on fourth-down in midfield allowed the Texans to score the game-tying touchdown.
Apart from the near-automatic Adam Vinatieri (40 consecutive field goal makes), Andrew Luck is one of very few bright spots for the Colts. But even he has not looked particularly impressive on the road this season. He’s completing just 60 percent of his passes and averaging 6 yards per attempt, compared to 67 percent and 8.44 YPA at home. He’s also thrown just four touchdowns against three interceptions in three road games.
Nevertheless, history will be on the Colts’ side in this matchup. They are an incredible 14-1 (11-4 ATS) in their last 15 meetings against their AFC South “rivals.”
Marcus Mariota and the Titans (3-3, 2-4 ATS) seem to have turned a corner in their season. The second-year quarterback has stepped up his game over the past two weeks to lead his team to wins over the Dolphins and Browns. He’s completed at least 69 percent of his passes, thrown three touchdowns and rushed for at least 60 yards in those two wins.
You might say they’re just beating up on weak competition, which is true, but the 2-4 Colts aren’t exactly light years ahead of Miami and Cleveland at the moment. Indianapolis legitimately has one of, if not the worst defense in the NFL, so Mariota has a very decent shot at prolonging his hot streak.
The Titans have also been quietly one of the most efficient running teams in the league (No. 3 per DVOA heading into Week 6). Look for them to continue having decent success against the Colts’ porous run defense which is giving up 4.8 yards per carry (28th in the NFL).
Meanwhile, this much-improved Titans defense is capable of slowing down an inconsistent Colts attack. Tennessee’s D ranked No. 7 per DVOA through Week 5, and has given up under 20 points three times already this season. That number really should’ve been four, but they gave up two garbage-time touchdowns in their 28-26 win over Cleveland on Sunday.
Writer’s Prediction
The Titans (-2.5) end their Colts hoodoo and get a 31-28 home win.
