In case you didn’t hear, the first College Football Playoff rankings of the year were released, with Clemson, LSU, Ohio State and Alabama occupying the coveted top four spots in that order. Of course, those rankings can (and probably will) still change drastically in the coming weeks.
If the CFP were to start today, though, let’s make some predictions on how the New Year’s Six bowl games will shake out and why those matchups are the likely to occur. And for more Week 10 college football coverage, check out our preview of the five best games on tap for this week here.
[sc:NCAAFArticles ]New Year’s Six Bowl Game Predictions – Week 10
Peach Bowl – Iowa vs. Memphis
[sc:NCAA240banner ]Undefeated Memphis is the highest-ranked Group of Five team in the first CFP ranking of the year, although it is priced at just +225 to win the AAC behind Houston at +170.
Nevertheless, the Tigers win the conference in this scenario, as they claim the one reserved slot for a Group of Five team in a New Year’s Six bowl game. Due to Tennessee’s proximity to Georgia, the site of the Peach Bowl, the Tigers head to nearby Atlanta.
Meanwhile, Iowa, which is currently undefeated and No. 9 in the ranking, is the likely at-large bid selected to face Memphis based on the much more competitive matchup it would create.
Fiesta Bowl – Notre Dame vs. TCU
With the Orange Bowl hosting a playoff semifinal this year, Notre Dame doesn’t get the automatic bid for that bowl game, as per their agreement. Meanwhile, the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will both fulfill their tie-ins to their partner conferences this year.
That means the Fiesta Bowl is the likely landing spot for the Irish, who are +1,400 sleepers for the national title. Meanwhile, No. 8 TCU ends up getting the at-large bid since it’ll get pushed off the Big 12 tie-in with the Sugar Bowl (more on that below).
Rose Bowl – Stanford vs. Michigan State
For those who don’t know, the Rose Bowl has a tie-in with both the Big Ten and Pac-12, which sees the champions of each conference meeting on New Year’s Day. Stanford, the No. 11-ranked team and -275 favorite to win the Pac-12 championship, gets to make the short trip to Pasadena.
Ohio State also goes on to win the Big Ten title, but it’ll be locked into the playoff semifinal. That means the second-best Big Ten team, which will most likely be No. 7 Michigan State, would go in its place.
Sugar Bowl – Baylor vs. Florida
Baylor is the No. 6 seed in the ranking, and is projected to win the Big 12. But since it doesn’t crack the top four despite being a major contender at +700, it’ll likely settle for a Sugar Bowl berth as the Big 12 representative.
The Bears will be slated to face off with the SEC champion, but since Alabama will be preoccupied with the semifinal, No. 10 Florida will take the Crimson Tide’s place as the SEC representative in the Sugar Bowl.
Cotton Bowl (College Football Semifinal) – LSU vs. Ohio State
As the current No. 2 seed in the CFP rankings, LSU gets into the playoff, which it is priced at +900 to win on the back of Heisman favorite Leonard Fournette. The Cotton Bowl will be held nearby in the AT&T Stadium in Texas, so the Tigers will likely be slotted into that bowl game.
There they’ll meet the undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes, still the overall title favorites at +200 and current holders of the No. 3 seed.
Orange Bowl (College Football Semifinal) – Clemson vs. Alabama
Clemson claimed the No. 1 seed in the rankings, and is priced at +600 to finish No. 1 at the end of the season. With the Tigers much closer to Florida (the site of the Orange Bowl) than Texas, they’ll likely be put into that semifinal bowl game.
They’ll face off with Alabama, who still gets in as the No. 4-seed despite a loss on its record. The Crimson Tide are currently priced at +450 to win yet another national title under Nick Saban.
National Championship Game – Ohio State vs. Clemson
As good as Fournette is, Ohio State is the more complete team from top to bottom, and just manages to edge out LSU. The same is true for Clemson, which is one of the few teams that can stop Alabama’s running game. Deshaun Watson’s running ability also plays into Alabama’s Achilles heel for the past few years.
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