Texas vs. Baylor NCAAB Preview
Where: Ferrell Center – Waco, Texas
When: Tuesday, January 17, 2017, 7:00 PM ET
Line: Texas Longhorns (+14) at Baylor Bears (-14) – view all NCAA basketball lines
TV Broadcast: ESPN2
Writer’s Pick: Texas Longhorns (+14)
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Betting on the Texas Longhorns (7-10, 1-4 Big 12)
To call Shaka Smart’s second season in Texas disappointing would be a bit of an understatement. The Longhorns have been racking up the Ls in Big 12 play. They’re now 1-4 and have lost three games in a row after falling to West Virginia.
To be fair to Texas, they gave the Mountaineers all they could handle, and managed to cover as 11-point home favorites in a 74-72 loss. Texas is actually 4-1 against the spread in its last five games.
Freshmen Jarrett Allen and Andrew Jones led the way with 19 and 17 points, respectively against West Virginia. The Longhorns were playing without leading scorer Tevin Mack (14.8 PPG), who was suspended indefinitely for violating team rules.
With Mack still suspended, Allen will have to continue shouldering much of the offensive load for Texas. Allen is averaging 18.5 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks over his last two games.
An already limited Texas offense (69.9 PPG, 261st in the country) will suffer even more without Mack, so the defense must step up against Baylor. The Longhorns are giving up 72.2 PPG, the 3rd-fewest in the conference. Meanwhile, they’re 25th in defensive efficiency per KenPom.com.
Texas has yet to win in four road games this season, but is 3-1 against the spread.
Betting on the Baylor Bears (16-1, 4-1 Big 12)
The Baylor Bears were able to bounce back from their disastrous loss to West Virginia by getting a big road win at Kansas State, 77-68. Manu Lecomte made up for his poor showing against WVU by scoring a season-high 26 points on 8-of-13 shooting. Wings Ish Wainwright and Al Freeman both chipped in with 15 points for the Bears.
Meanwhile, the Bears were able to flex their significant muscles on the boards as they outrebounded Kansas State, 37-24. Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. and Johnathan Motley combined for 21 boards. Baylor is the top rebounding team in the Big 12 because of those two terrific bigs, and should once again enjoy a significant advantage against a mediocre rebounding team in Texas.
The Baylor defense should also be able to clamp down on the Longhorns’ shorthanded attack. The Bears are No. 1 in the Big 12 in points allowed (65.4) and field goal percentage allowed (40 percent) during conference play. They are No. 6 in the country in defensive efficiency per KenPom.com.
Baylor is undefeated at home this season, but the Bears failed to cover their first two conference home games against Iowa State and Oklahoma State.
Writer’s Prediction
Baylor gets the win, but Texas (+14) makes the Bears work and covers another game on the road.
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