It took some time but Arizona finally knew its matchup when Wichita State blew out Vanderbilt on Tuesday. Arizona won two games in last year’s national tournament before running out of gas in the regional final against Wisconsin. As for Wichita State, the Shockers are eyeing an upset with seniors Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker having zero plans of ending their college careers this soon.
For more March Madness previews, you can check out our breakdown of Xavier vs. Villanova and Iowa State vs. Iona.
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March Madness No. 6 Arizona vs No. 11 Wichita State Preview
Where: Dunkin Donuts Center, Providence
When: Thursday, March 17, 9:20 PM ET
Line: Arizona Wildcats (-1.5) vs. Wichita State Shockers (+1.5); total: 136.5 – view all NCAA Basketball lines
TV Broadcast: TNT
Betting on the Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats, who are 16th overall in points with 81.2 per game, boast of a solid group of seniors led by guard Gabe York and big man Kaleb Tarczewski.
York is averaging 15.2 points per game this season, but he’s seemingly found an extra gear of late, notching 21.7 points in his last four outings. That includes York’s 32-point explosion in a win over Stanford on March 5, wherein he also sank nine triples.
Tarczewski, meanwhile, enjoys being surrounded by Arizona’s shooters, who stretch opposing defenses. The seven-foot center is averaging a near double-double of 9.4 PPG and 9.3 RPG. He should be able to throw his size around the paint against an undersized Wichita State frontcourt.
Speaking of shooters, York and company are averaging just 6.5 threes per game, but that’s more because they have other options to score and less because they’re not that confident on their outside shooting. In fact, Arizona is 31st in the nation with a 38.3% shooting from the three-point area.
Among those options is Tarczewski’s frontcourt partner, senior transfer Ryan Anderson. Anderson is the team’s leading scorer and rebounder (15.5 PPG, 10. RPG) and together with Tarczewski, should be a menacing problem on the boards for Wichita State. Arizona is 19th in the nation in total (40.3 RPG).
The over is 3-0 in Arizona’s last three games overall.
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Betting on the Wichita State Shockers
Now that we’re done admiring Arizona’s offense, let’s take some time to marvel at Wichita State’s defense.
The Shockers can really make opponents bleed for points, as they allow an acute average of 59.4 points per game, which is the fewest in the nation. Opposing teams are shooting a poor 38.4 percent from the field against Wichita State.
The latest team to taste the Shockers’ wrath on defense was Vanderbilt, which shot just 30.2% in a 70-50 loss on Tuesday. Per KenPom, Wichita State’s defense is ranked number one overall in defensive efficiency, allowing just 88.6 points per 100 possessions.
Arizona sure has better skilled scorers than Vandy, but Wichita State won’t be fazed by any level of opposition. The Shockers are led by the pair of seniors in Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, who are very experienced and have seen it all in the college ranks. (Just last season, Wichita State took down Indiana and Kansas in the NCAA Tournament).
The Shockers constantly pressure opposing guards and often succeed, as evidenced by the 15.4 turnovers they force per game. That’s added concern for Arizona that already commits 12.8 errors per contest.
Baker is a do-it-all guard who averages 14.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.2 APG, and 1.5 SPG, while VanVleet carries averages of 12.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 5.7 APG, and 1.6 SPG.
Wichita State is averaging 73.1 points per game, which isn’t a mind-bending figure, but its ability to cut opposing teams to size with defense is what’s going to be the key for the team against Arizona.
The Shockers are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
Writer’s Prediction
Wichita State (+1.5) wins, 74-72.
