The New Orleans Saints opened up as six-point favorites at TopBet, but bettors seemed to like the chalk here and bet the line up to 6.5. When favored anywhere between 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, the Saints are 7-2 against the spread and won eight of those nine games outright.
Bettors will also take interest in dome play here on wild card weekend. Carolina doesn’t play well in domes, as they have failed to cover in six of their last seven games when playing under the cap, and lost in five of those games in the process. The Panthers are also 0-2 SU and ATS as an underdog on the road when the opponent is favored 3.5 to 7-points this season.
The Carolina Panthers lost both games against the New Orleans Saints this season, with run defense being the key culprit. While they (Panthers) boasted the third-best run defense in the league this year (88.1 rushing yards per game), they somehow gave up 149 and 148 yards in each respective loss the Saints. New Orleans’ offensive line simply dominated this matchup and if the Panthers expect to have a shot at a victory this Sunday, they must win the battle on the scrimmage line.
Carolina also has to step up on the offense end, because the Saints have gotten under their skin there too, holding the squad to just 288 yards (or less) in both 2017 season games. The Panthers need to successfully run the football, maintain themselves in short third downs, and move the chains with a high rate of occurrence. But since they have not been able to accomplish this against the Saints in the regular season, one has to ask, will the playoffs be any different?
New Orleans have run the football well this season, converting slightly under half of their third downs while dominating the time of possession. Where the Panthers need to make some changes heading into wild card weekend, the Saints simply need to keep delivering more of the same.
Many experts chalk this up to an offense-versus-defense battle, but the Saints’ defensive unit has been pretty damn solid this season as well. They allowed just over 20 points per game during the regular season, which is the same as Carolina. That’s a scary thought for the Panthers who are offensively inferior. The Saints also ranked better than the Panthers in pass defense and held opposing QBs to a less favorable quarterback rating.
Factor in the fact that New Orleans enjoys home advantage, where they went 7-1 this season with double digit wins in four of their last five at home, and you can just feel the Panthers (2-3 in their last five road games) shaking in their paws.
Writer’s Prediction
The “asks” for the Carolina Panthers this Sunday are too many. While they may have learned from their mistakes against the Saints, it’s just too late to execute. Looks for New Orleans to move ahead in the playoffs and cover in the process. Pick: New Orleans Saints (-6.5).
