The defending champion Duke Blue Devils find themselves down at the No. 4 seed in the West Region after an underwhelming regular season campaign. Being outside the top two seeds has historically spelled an early tournament exit for Duke. Can the high-scoring No. 13 UNC-Wilmington Seahawks take advantage and pull off a big upset of the Blue Devils in the round of 64?
Read on below for a complete preview of this all-Carolina NCAA Tournament matchup. And for more action from the West Region, check out our previews of No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 12 Yale and No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Northern Iowa.
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March Madness No. 4 Duke vs. No. 13 UNC-Wilmington Preview
Where: Dunkin Donuts Center, Providence
When: Thursday, March 17, 12:15 PM ET
Line: Duke Blue Devils (-10) vs. UNC-Wilmington Seahawks (+10); total 156.5 – view all NCAA Basketball lines
TV Broadcast: CBS
Betting on Duke Blue Devils
Duke just hasn’t been the dominant juggernaut that it has been in past years. The injury to big man Amile Jefferson was a major factor for the Blue Devils’ struggles as they went 23-10 overall, including just 3-4 in their last seven games.
However, Duke should still fancy its matchup with UNC-Wilmington. The Seahawks are a more offensive-minded team that could look to get into a shootout with the Blue Devils. That’s exactly the kind of game Duke wants, though. After all, it was 17th in scoring (81.5 PPG) and No. 6 in efficiency per KenPom.
6-9 freshman Brandon Ingram (16.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG) should have quite a field day going to work against a Seahawks team that usually plays with a small-ball lineup. Duke’s main weakness, which is getting burned on the offensive glass, shouldn’t be as big a factor in this matchup because UNCW does like to go small.
Meanwhile, leading scorer Grayson Allen (21.6 points per game) can get to the line seemingly at will. UNCW just so happens to be the most generous team in terms of giving up free throw attempts in the entire nation, so Allen should have little trouble scoring some easy points and getting the Seahawks in foul trouble.
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Betting on the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks
UNC-Wilmington is back to the Big Dance for the first time in 10 years. The Seahawks went 16-2 in their last 18 games, although all three of their CAA conference tournament games were very close. Meanwhile, their biggest non-conference game of the season was against Georgetown, which they lost by five.
Nevertheless, Duke has crashed out in the round of 64 in each of the past two even years (2012 and 2014), and UNCW has a pretty decent chance to make it three.
For one, the Seahawks have the scoring to keep up with Duke. With their high-powered, small-ball line-up, they averaged 79.2 points per game, 39th in the country this season. Junior Chris Flemmings (16 PPG) is wildly efficient – he shoots 62 percent on 2’s and 37 percent on 3’s – and is a legit go-to guy in crunch time.
On the other end, the Seahawks have the tools to take away Duke’s big weapon: the three-point shot. They ranked in the top-15 in terms of limiting opponents to the fewest three-pointers made and attempted this season. They are also capable of forcing turnovers, and rattling Duke with their aggressive style of defense.
Writer’s Prediction
UNCW (+10) does enough to cover, but Duke comes away with the win, 81-72.
