In one of the biggest surprises of the season thus far, the St. Louis Rams dealt a huge upset to the Denver Broncos, beating the Super Bowl contenders, 22-7, last week. With the Broncos also suffering some significant injuries, that game almost surely had an impact in the lines for both teams’ next games, but exactly how much of an impact? Let’s find out with the review of the week’s line movement.
As per usual, a game’s line will shift during the way due to many different reasons, but more often because of heavy betting activity on one team or significant injury/injuries to a key player/s. However, please remember that the reasons for the line shift below are only educated analyses and do not reflect the actual opinions of the linemakers.
With that clear, let’s get to the updated Week 12 lines, which you can bet on today if you create a betting account right now. You can also check out our compilation of the best expert picks for all of Week 12’s games.
[sc:NFL240banner ]Despite the Falcons going on a two-game winning streak (albeit against sub-500 teams in the Bucs and Panthers), the public has bet the Browns down to a three-point road underdog.
Aside from the 6-4 Browns looking like a superior team to the 4-6 Falcons, the public might see the return of Browns receiver Josh Gordon, last year’s leader in receiving yards, against the team with the worst pass defense in the league as a decent reason to back the Browns.
However, the Falcons have been known to put points up at home. They scored 93 total points in their first two home games of the year against the Saints and Bucs.
Green Bay Packers (-10) vs. Minnesota Vikings (+10)
It seems like the public is expecting the Packers, who have scored 50-plus points in consecutive games, to fall down to earth this week against the Vikings like the Steelers did a few weeks ago. Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers similarly had consecutive blowout home wins before laying an egg against the Jets on the road.
But while the Vikings defense is solid, the offense could have a hard time keeping up with Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings have averaged just 14.5 points in regulation in their last six games.The Packers, on the other hand, have scored 27 or more points in six of their last seven.
Despite the Seahawks’ less than impressive play this season, the public still has a lot of faith in Seattle, especially at home. Either that, or the public has the opposite of faith in Cardinals quarterback Drew Stanton to keep the game close on the road in a hostile environment.
However, the same question marks are present in the Seahawks offense’s ability to move the ball against an Arizona defense that’s been arguably the best in the league this season. Seattle has ran the ball well recently, but stopping the run is the Cardinals’ specialty. Without the run game, Seattle’s offense would look very ordinary.
St. Louis Rams (+4.5) vs. San Diego Chargers (-4.5)
In the biggest shift of the week, the public has predictably pounced on the Rams, who are coming off a big upset of the Broncos, moving the line 1.5 points in their favor against the Chargers.
While the Chargers offense has failed to run smoothly over the last month, the Rams defense has finally started to hit full gear during that time. The Chargers also haven’t covered in five straight games as injuries have taken their toll on this once-promising contender.
But as good as the Rams defense has looked, their offense – led by quarterback Shaun Hill – looks terribly shaky. Prior to their 22-point “explosion” against the Broncos, the Rams had scored a total of 34 points in three games.
Peyton Manning is a great quarterback and all, but the public is probably right in thinking that even he can’t lead the Broncos to cover such a large spread against a very good Dolphins team without as many as four of his top offensive weapons. The Dolphins have won four out of their last six games, and the two games they lost to the Packers and Lions were by just seven total points.
Still, Manning is really good, so much so that he put 40 points past the Cardinals and 49ers, two of the best defenses in the league, at home. Granted, those were with his full complement of skill position players, but don’t put anything past the five-time MVP.
