The Indianapolis Colts have run away with the AFC South for the past couple of years. As it turns out, having Andrew Luck at quarterback is so much better than having Ryan Fitzpatrick or Blake Bortles. This season’s division race may prove to be even less competitive after the Colts got a lot stronger with their many offseason moves.
It’s almost a foregone conclusion that Indy will finish top, but where will Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville fall in the standings? Let’s find out just how the AFC South plays out as we determine each team’s win totals for the season.
Get a complete look at the AFC for the upcoming season with our previews of the East, West and North divisions.
[sc:Football ]2015 NFL AFC South Regular Season Wins Preview
Indianapolis Colts
2014 Record: 11-5
Over/Under Wins: 10.5 – view all NFL regular season win totals
Here’s a fun fact: the Indianapolis Colts have gone undefeated – that’s 12-0 – in division play over the last two seasons. Unsurprisingly, they comfortably won the AFC South both years and are massive -475 favorites to complete the hat-trick this year after a very eventful offseason.
[sc:NFL240banner ]The Colts beefed up their defense with the signings of veteran linebackers Nate Irving and Trent Cole. And on offense, they gave superstar quarterback Andrew Luck a couple of new weapons to work with in Frank Gore, Andre Johnson and first-round pick Phillip Dorsett.
The Colts’ new-look team will also get the benefit of playing a cakewalk of a schedule which is ranked as the second-easiest in the entire NFL this season. That’s the benefit of playing 10 of 16 games against both of the NFL’s struggling South divisions. Furthermore, Indy’s two hardest games of the year – against the Patriots (Week 6) and Broncos (Week 9) – will both be at home.
The Colts have gone 11-5 in all three seasons with Luck at quarterback and with all the things going for them this season, it should be considered a huge failure if they somehow don’t at least match that mark again.
Prediction: OVER 10.5 wins
Houston Texans
2014 Record: 9-7
Over/Under Wins: 8.5 – view all NFL regular season win totals
The Houston Texans experienced a massive seven-win improvement in their very first season under head coach Bill O’Brien. They achieved this despite top overall pick Jadeveon Clowney playing only four games, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Ryan Mallett and Tom Savage all spending time at quarterback.
The Texans acquired Brian Hoyer this offseason, and figures to be a slight upgrade at quarterback. Hoyer had a career year in 2014 as a full-time starter with the Browns. They also boosted their defense by bringing in veteran Vince Wilfork to play alongside the superhuman JJ Watt and the returning Clowney, who apparently “looks spectacular.”
Like the Colts, the Texans figure to have a similarly easy schedule (it’s ranked third-easiest in the league). They will play five games against three of the worst teams in the league last season (Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Tennessee) and will play just six games against teams with winning records in 2014.
If the Texans can grab five wins from those very winnable games against the Bucs, Jags and Titans, they should have a talented enough team to go at least 4-7 the rest of the way.
Prediction: OVER 8.5 wins
Jacksonville Jaguars
2014 Record: 3-13
Over/Under Wins: 5.5 – view all NFL regular season win totals
The long road to rebuilding continues for the Jaguars, who had another disastrous season in 2014. Blake Bortles – their prospective franchise quarterback – had a baptism by fire in his rookie year as he was sacked a league-high 55 times and had a league-worst 21.9 QBR.
The Jags signed tight end Julius Thomas in the offseason to be the top red zone target for their young QB, but they lost top pick Dante Fowler Jr. for the season with a torn ACL.
However, there’s a lot of room for optimism in Jacksonville this season. Even without Fowler, the defense should continue to improve in Year 3 under Gus Bradley. Similarly, things can only get better for Bortles and his young teammates on offense.
Jacksonville has a relatively easy schedule this year, as only half of their opponents posted a winning record last season. With the help of a few favorable breaks, the Jags have a realistic shot at exceeding five wins for the first time since 2010.
Prediction: OVER 5.5 Wins
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Tennessee Titans
2014 Record: 2-14
Over/Under Wins: 5.5 – view all NFL regular season win totals
The good news: after some lengthy negotiations, the Tennessee Titans have finally signed up No. 2 pick Marcus Mariota! The bad news: he almost certainly won’t be the Heisman-caliber star that took college football by storm during his rookie year. Oh, and the team around him still isn’t looking too great, either. There’s a reason the Titans shared the worst record in the NFL last season.
The signings of veterans Perrish Cox and Brian Orakpo will definitely help improve the defense, and Jurrell Casey remains one of the more criminally underrated defensive players in the NFL. But their offensive line still has question marks after a disappointing 2014, and they remain short of legitimate weapons in the skill positions.
Tennessee has a favorable start to the season with road games at Tampa Bay and Cleveland in Weeks 1 and 2, followed by four-straight home games. They also play Jacksonville twice with Oakland sandwiched in between from Weeks 11-13. But the lack of offensive punch will likely see the Titans continue to bring up the rear in the division with another sub-five win season.
Prediction: UNDER 5.5 wins
Writer’s Prediction
The Colts claim a third-straight division championship by going 13-3. The Texans finish a distant second at 9-7. The Jaguars improve to 6-10, while the Titans go 4-12.
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