The New Orleans Saints were one of the NFL’s criminal underachievers last season. With the NFC South theirs for the taking, the Saints stumbled to a second losing record in three years, no thanks to their shambles of a defense. They will be looking to start this season off on a much better note as they face last year’s top overachievers, the Arizona Cardinals.
Carson Palmer will make his return after suffering a serious knee injury last season. Can he outduel Drew Brees and the prolific Saints offense? Get a full breakdown of this all-NFC Week 1 matchup below.
Meanwhile, don’t forget to check out our previews of Week 1’s other top games in the Colts vs. Bills and Packers vs. Bears.
[sc:Football ]New Orleans Saints vs. Arizona Cardinals Betting Preview and Prediction
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale
When: Sunday, September 13, 4:05 PM ET
Line: New Orleans Saints (+3) at Arizona Cardinals (-3); total 47.0 – see all NFL lines
TV Broadcast: FOX
Betting on the New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints were not a very good football team last season. Their defense, in particular, was a train wreck. They were 31st overall in defensive DVOA and dead-last against the run, which was a big reason why they finished a disappointing 7-9 (6-10 against the spread).
[sc:NFL240banner ]The defense lost its top pass rusher after Junior Galette was cut last month. They didn’t make many dramatic moves to bolster the front seven, and Brandon Browner’s addition in the secondary isn’t exactly a game-changer. Unless linebackers Stephone Anthony and Hau’Oli Kikaha turn out to be sudden impact stars as rookies, the Saints should once again be below average on defense.
The good news for New Orleans, though, is that the Cardinals aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts. The Cards’ running game is almost as wretched as the Saints’ run defense. Arizona finished 30th in rushing offense last season per DVOA.
Meanwhile, the Saints offense can still outgun Arizona’s attack even with the loss of Jimmy Graham. Quarterback Drew Brees finished in the top five in passing yards (4,952), completion percentage (69.2) and touchdowns (33) last season despite a “down year.” The Saints offense as a whole was tops in the NFL in yards per game (411.4) and was ninth in points per game (25.1).
While New Orleans’ ground game, which was bolstered by the additions of center Max Unger and first-rounder Andrus Peat, could struggle moving the ball against Arizona’s very solid run defense, Brees has very capable receiving targets in Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks and free agent signing CJ Spiller to move the chains.
Brees also won’t have much of a pass rush to fear against a Cards team that was way down in 28th in adjusted sack rate last season.
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Betting on the Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals were one of the surprise stories of last season. They were 9-1 through 11 weeks, but injuries to their top two quarterbacks – Carson Palmer and eventually Drew Stanton – saw them and drop four of their last six as they finished 11-5 overall.
Carson will be back from his torn ACL to start the season, which will be a huge upgrade at quarterback. He still has some rust to shake off, as evidenced by his preseason performance – 15-of-33, 165 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions – but he couldn’t have picked a better defense to return against than New Orleans’.
Arizona’s offense is predicated on big pass plays. The Cards had 58 pass plays of 20-plus yards last season, the sixth-most in the league. They should get their share of big plays in against the Saints, who could still be without top free safety Jairus Byrd for Week 1.
The Cards will be missing All Pro guard Mike Iupati, which will be a big blow to their already suspect running game. However, running back Andre Ellington should still be a big factor against the Saints through the air. Ellington’s ability as a receiver (he had 46 catches for 395 yards last season) will be a big weapon against a Saints defense that was dead last defending against running backs in the passing game.
Arizona’s run defense remains a strength – it finished No. 6 in DVOA against the run – but there are some question marks about the secondary after the loss of Antonio Cromartie.
The Cardinals were one of the most reliable home teams last season. They finished 7-1 – their lone loss coming to the NFC champion Seattle Seahawks – and were 6-2 against the spread at home.
Writer’s Prediction
The Cardinals defense slows down the Saints offense, while Palmer and the offense move the ball well enough against the New Orleans D. Arizona wins and covers -3 at home.
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