There’s nothing like a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament. It’s the round where Cinderellas are born and pumpkin rides take off. And if you’ve been following college basketball closely this season, you definitely have the hunch that this year’s tournament is going to be a potpourri of craziness with lots of those occurring in the first round.
Below, we’ll take a look at some of the potential bracket-busters as well as tips and notes to consider when betting on the first round of the NCAA National Tournament.
March Madness News & Predictions
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- 2016 March Madness Preview
- 2016 NCAA March Madness Expert Picks
Best Bets for First Round of the NCAA March Madness
Don’t believe the hype of the 16-seeds
Well, there’s really no significant hype for the 16-seeds. Let’s just say that this season has been full of crazy upsets that the belief that a 16-seed would take a one-seed for the first time ever will come this year is a bit stronger than recent years.
Let’s not stop there. The top-10 programs in this season’s AP poll have combined for 74 losses—again, the most in NCAA history.
Having said all of that, don’t be afraid to bet on the spreads of 1-seeds in the first round. For one, they’re the only breed that hasn’t lost in initial stage of the tournament. And as Jason Logan of Covers.com points out, the five-second decrease in the shot clock should favor the chalks.
Less time to get off shots means more possessions for both teams and a bigger chance for the better side to make baskets to cover the spread. It’s not just an idea Logan grabbed from thin air, as he noted that under the 30-second shot clock this season, favored teams by at least 12 points are 398-381-18 ATS (51%).
If you’re looking for upsets, you’re likely going to find it in other matchups.
The Hateful 12
The 12-seeds are everyone’s bracket nightmare. Almost every year, a 12-seed will beat a five-seed to destroy millions of brackets across the nation. Experienced bettors know this and that’s why it’s best practice to pay close attention to this matchup when trying to detect upsets.
For the record, 12-seeds are 18-9-1 ATS and 15-13 SU over the last seven years. That’s a big pie to throw at the selection committee’s faces. In the past two years, these pesky 12-seeds have even gone 3-5 SU and 6-1-1 ATS. Keep that in mind.
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Seed-spread discrepancy
A higher-seeded team in the first round doesn’t necessarily mean that it’ll be the betting favorite. Vegas logic doesn’t always go that way. And it’s mostly highlighted this year in the matchups between the 9-seeds and the 8-seeds. In fact, all four nine-seeds have been installed as favorites. Where’s your God now?
Furthermore, 10-seed VCU is a 4.5-point chalk against seven-seed Oregon State, while 11-seed Gonzaga is now one-point fave despite being matched up against 6-seed Seton Hall. The Pirates opened as the favorite but the enormous action on the Bulldogs obviously tilted the spread.
Coaches matter
News flash: coaches play a big role in college basketball! Duh.
College basketball coaches aren’t paid as if they’ve just invented a drug for cancer just because they’re great in attracting top-tier high school talents to their programs. They can win games, too. That’s why it’s important to have an idea who some of the teams’ coaches are. It helps in making sound betting decisions. For what it’s worth, ESPN released a long list of coaches and their respective ATS records in the national tournament.
Notables:
Andy Enfield—the former FGCU and now USC coach is 3-0 ATS in the tournament. Of course you remember that Cinderella run by the Eagles AKA “Dunk City” in the 2013 national tourney as a 15-seed. The Spartans, however are
Kevin Ollie—The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in the tournament under Ollie, who guided UConn into an improbable national title win back in 2014.
First Round Upset/Cover Picks
You’ve read so much. Now is the time for this writer to present some of his choice upset/cover picks in the first round of the NCAA National Tournament:
No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Iona Gaels (+7.5)
Prediction: Iona wins and covers.
The Gaels have an under-the-radar major scorer in A.J. English, who can explode in any game. Iowa State is coming from a power conference, but the Cyclones’ defense (allows 75.0 PPG on 43.5% shooting) is just so bad that it should keep English and the Gaels competitive right to the end. And hey, didn’t Iowa State lost to UAB in the first round last season? #justsaying
No. 10 VCU Rams (-4.5) vs. No. 7 Oregon State Beavers
Prediction: VCU wins and covers.
As mentioned earlier, the Rams are the lower seeds but come into the game as chalks because apparently, bookmakers listen to KenPom more than they value the selection committee’s judgement. KenPom has the Rams ranked 34th, while Oregon State is just 59th. Expect VCU to dominate the glass and take advantage of Oregon State’s shallow bench and soft defense.
No. 11 Northern Iowa (+4.5) No. 6 Texas
Prediction: UNI gets the upset win.
The ghost of Ali Farokhmanesh will be felt at least in the first round. Northern Iowa has four wins against Top 50 RPI teams, including one over North Carolina and two against Wichita State, so the Panthers can certainly play at the highest level. Both teams have terrific defense so expect a tight contest until the end, where the team with better execution wins.
